Georgia calls for Ossetia ceasefire but Moscow appears to be ignoring them.

At the same time, a Georgia minister says their troops are ‘merely regrouping’ and not retreating from South Ossetia. Russian media confirms that, saying Georgia troops have broken through their defenses in Tskhinvali in South Ossetia. So, it certainly sounds like Georgia is ignoring their own cease fire too.

Russia prepares naval blockade of Georgia in the Black Sea.

BP says pipeline still flowing to Georgia ports. However the primary pipeline through Turkey was damaged by a PKK bomb. There are conflicting reports as to whether pipeline and port facilities in Georgia are still intact. Also, as reported here yesterday, Azerbaijan said they would not pump oil until hostilities are over.

Lawyers, Guns, and Money has been posting regular updates on the war and is highly recommended. Check this tidbit from a comment to their post yesterday about the war.

And this is an interesting discussion about how an Ossetian war would go from March, 2008:

http://www.milkavkaz.net/forum/v…c.php?p=190#190

The consensus is blitzkrieg by Georgia would be the best bet.

So obviously, this scenario that we see here has already been thought out by both sides of this conflict if an analysis of the tactics that Georgia might have used on the attack, and actually did use, was already being discussed on russian language forums four months ago.

I guess this is only a surprise to the 99.9 percent of the world that wasn’t paying attention.

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Even if the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline were operational, which it apparently isn’t, there is little chance that oil will be piped through it for the next 15 days. And, uh, why are they just declaring war for 15 days - and asking for a cease-fire at the same time?

Georgia is also recalling its troops from Iraq and they are being ferried back by US planes. Ya, that’ll calm the waters.

Let’s hope we aren’t having an Archduke Ferdinand moment whose assassination in 1914 upset the balance of power and led to WWI (although the war probably would have happened anyway.) Not that anything remotely like WWI is coming but the balance of power is most definitely being upset in the Caucasus.

PS Azerbaijan halts oil exports to Georgia ports

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The harbor of Poti in Georgia is near the major oil terminal of Supsa in the Black Sea.

Georgia is reporting the harbor has been destroyed. This major secondary route for oil on Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is now closed and the primary route to the Mediterranean through Turkey has been shut down because of sabotage by the PKK.

Thus the pipeline, over which 1.15 million barrels of oil a day travel, now appears to be completely shut down.

BBC on Georgia

You don’t start a military showdown with someone who can turn the gas off.

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Image from Asia Times in 2005 who has useful background on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that supplies the US, EU, and Israel.

The pipeline was bombed in Turkey just a few days ago.

The PKK, a Kurdish separatist organization, has claimed responsibility, but the bombing happened outside their traditional zone of operation.

Turkey is saying the pipeline fire happened for “technical reasons” uh huh, while the PKK promises more attacks and predictions are the pipeline will be closed there for up to several weeks.

An Azerbiajan news source from Aug. 4 ominously reports the pipeline could be blown up in Georgia should hostilities start - and electricity could be cut off too.

Under consideration are different options from opening of “second front” and disconnection of power supply to Georgia from Ingur electric power station [in Abkhazia, an autonomous part of Georgia] to acts of sabotage on territory of Georgia. It has been announced unofficially that in case of start of hostilities in Southern Osetia, the specially trained saboteurs can blast BTC pipeline.

The main consumers of oil exported via BTC pipeline route are the United States, European Union and Israel.

The above, as mentioned, is dated Aug. 4 - which is before the overt hostilities started.

Tip: PeakEnergy.blogspot.com

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