Politics in the Zeros

When Trump supporters become disillusioned, we should welcome them

By Bob Morris on Sun, Dec 18, 2016 in News 0

At the beginning of Watergate, few were openly opposed to Nixon. Many more thought he was a sleazy crook but that nothing could be done. The original Nixon protesters were lonely, mostly hippie radicals like myself and other lefties. However, protest grew as Nixon’s lies and deceit became obvious to all. Then corrupt VP Spiro Agnew was forced to resign. Then Nixon fell. Early on, no one really ever thought this could happen, but it did.

I remember a political cartoon then. Hippies with signs saying “Impeach Nixon” were joined by businessmen in suits, one of whom says to the hippies, “Just don’t rub it in, ok?” We didn’t rub it in. Instead, we were happy public opinion had shifted. We welcomed them. The more the merrier.

Many Trump supporters have big hopes. Some will become disillusioned when he becomes unable to deliver on promises. We need to welcome them. And we can’t do that if we’ve already written Trump supporters off as knuckle-dragging troglodytes.

Friends of ours, a married couple, live in an area where there is only one Obamacare provider. They are mostly self-employed and say the amount of paperwork Obamacare demands to determine the subsidy is just insane, especially since it must be in by Feb. 15, before she has gotten all her W-2s and 1099s. So, they must send bank statements, which they consider an enormous hassle and an invasion of privacy. Worse, to them Obamacare means they go to a doctor, pay what they did before they had insurance because the deductible is so high, then pay a few hundred a month more or health insurance they consider to be mostly useless.

They are not wealthy and resent a healthcare plan they see as worse than useless. They don’t care if their state hasn’t opted in. Just fix it, please. They voted for Trump. They aren’t stupid or racist, just tired of the status quo and want change.

Trump probably won’t be the change they want. So when they, and millions others like them get disillusioned, we should welcome them. Because, in the final analysis, it was public opinion that caused Nixon to resign.

Saul Alinsky on means vs ends. Jimmy Hoffa. The electoral college

By Bob Morris on Fri, Dec 16, 2016 in News 0

Ford Motor Company “Service Department” goons attack UAW officials legally trying to unionize Ford.

Those squealing in indignation about the current attempts to get electoral college voters to flip and vote against Trump should remember Saul Alinsky’s observations about means vs ends. Specifically, concern about whether something is ethical decreases the closer you are to the conflict and the more you care about the outcome. The extreme example of this is war, where you do whatever you have to.

Jimmy Hoffa leading Teamster strikes in the 1930’s is illustrative here. At one point striking Teamsters were getting maimed and killed by goons brought in by the companies. They were putting their lives on the line, and were losing. So Hoffa made a deal with the mob and won the strike. It’s easy from our comfortable vantage point decades later to say he shouldn’t have done this, but we weren’t there. That’s Rule 4). Hoffa also didn’t have much choice. Losing the strike meant thousands of Teamsters would face vindictive retaliation by the companies. He did what he had to with what he had. That’s Rules 1), 3), 5), 6), and 7).

Alinsky on means vs ends

1) One’s concern with the ethics of means and ends varies inversely with one’s personal interest in the issue, and one’s distance from the scene of conflict.
2) The judgement of the ethics of means is dependent upon the political position of those sitting in judgment.
3) In war, the end justifies almost any means.
4) The judgement of the ethics of means must be made in the context of the times in which the action occurred and not from any other chronological vantage point.
5) Concern with ethics increases with the number of means available.
6) The less important the end, the more one engage in ethical evaluations about means.
7) Success or failure is a mighty determinant of ethics.
8) The morality of a means depends upon whether the means is being employed at a time of imminent defeat or imminent victory.
9) Any effective means is automatically judged by the opposition as being unethical.
10) You do what you can with what you have and clothe it with moral garments.

Ghost Ship in Oakland. Ghost housing too

By Bob Morris on Fri, Dec 16, 2016 in News 0

People live in substandard housing in Oakland because they probably had to leave San Francisco due to nosebleed housing costs, then found they couldn’t afford anything legit in Oakland either. So they live in unsafe housing like the Ghost Ship.

Johnny at Granola Shotgun started buying rental properties in San Francisco and elsewhere years ago and blogs eloquently about housing shortages, costs of housing, and more. He lives in an apartment in a building he and friends jointly bought. He said the word is out among young people, don’t even bother with San Francisco. It’s just too expensive. A friend of his with rental property in Stockton says it used to rent to people who worked in Stockton. but now is mainly people who work in Oakland, which is a two hour drive each way. That means you work, drive, and sleep. Not much time for anything else.

There are engineers at Google making $150,000 who sleep in campers in the parking lot because why pay $3,000 a month for a one bedroom dump when Google has free meals and showers.

The Ghost Ship in Oakland was beyond substandard, and it burned, killing dozens. But upgrading buildings like it to code would be hugely expensive and then those currently living in them would certainly no longer be able to afford it.

The landlord in this case was absent and unresponsive to complaints of a faulty electrical system and a general lack of safety. The tenants cobbled together all manner of make shift solutions for heating and cooking involving propane tanks and extension cords. Improvised stairs, sleeping lofts, and interior partitions resulted in a maze of dangerous spaces. The city of Oakland, which is perpetually low on funds and personnel, hadn’t inspected this building for decades. (Ironically there’s a fire station directly around the corner.) And finally, a dance was held at the Ghost Ship which filled the building with even more people, many of whom weren’t familiar with the property’s unusual twists and quirks.
If the landlord had applied for official permission to convert the building to a residential use it’s not clear that city bureaucracies would have allowed it under the current zoning and planning regime. If permission was somehow granted the cost of electrical and plumbing upgrades, earthquake retrofits, fire sprinklers, handicapped accessibility provisions like an elevator, off street parking minimums (the list goes on and on – we’re talking a couple of million dollars minimum) would mean that only very high rents could justify the up front investment.
And finally, it may be time for many people to reluctantly find a new city in another state to colonize. The Bay Area is toast. It really has become your money or your life.

Resilient thinking. Las Vegas and water usage

By Bob Morris on Tue, Dec 13, 2016 in Water 0

A common misconception is southern Nevada and Las Vegas are huge water pigs. The opposite is true. Per capita water use has dropped since 2001, thanks to a smart region-wide water authority that encourages conservation and a world-class system that recycles and reuses every drop of water that goes down a drain or toilet, as well as saving rainwater, by letting it all flow back into Lake Mead where it is reused.

The entire rainwater capture system works by gravity. There are no pumps. Rain is captured in huge basins, flows downhill to water treatment plants, marshlands, Lake Las Vegas, then into Lake Mead. By law, southern Nevada can use 1.8% of water in Lake Mead. However, recaptured water does not count towards that total. It’s one of the most innovative water systems anywhere.

In the early 1990s, southern Nevada was headed towards a water crisis. One problem was there were seven water agencies. They joined together to create the Southern Nevada Water Authority, which shares resources.

The ability to band together to take collective action for the common good is a key to resilience in human systems.
The Southern Nevada Water Authority created a regional framework for the pursuit of conservation, and pursue it Las Vegas did. With publicity campaigns, restrictions on landscaping in new construction, and policies like lawn buy-back programs, Las Vegas residents’ water use began to drop. From 1994 to 2014, per capita water use declined by 36 percent. Conservation soon outstripped population growth, such that total water use peaked in 2002 and has been declining ever since.

From the comments. This is key. Charge more for water and people will use less.

Fun fact – in Nevada, it is legal for a water authority to raise prices with the intent of encouraging conservation in usage. Aggressive pricing of a scarce resource is a key driver in reducing Vegas’ water usage per capita, along with the other policies you mention. In contrast, In California water authorities can only charge for cost of service, which makes it much harder to reduce water usage per capita.

The Fourth Transformation. Robert Scoble and Shel Israel

By Bob Morris on Sat, Dec 10, 2016 in News 0

The first transformation was mainframes, followed by text-based operating systems like DOS. These were supplanted by graphical interfaces like Windows and Macs, which include smartphones. The fourth transformation is underway now, AR / MR/ VR glasses will replace smartphones as a primary device. Think a Caterpillar mechanic using AR glasses to look at the manual when repairing equipment. This is already happening.Or think walking into a store an seeing sales displayed in your glasses for items you are interested in. This may seem odd now. It will become completely routine.

Some of the advances are mind boggling, like blind people being able to see using an AR receiver transmitting to a chip implanted behind the retina which sends the data to the brain, allowing the person to see. Lowe’s is using Google Tango phone infrared features to read dimensions of a room and map where sofas, cabinets could go and allow you to view them. The next step of course is AR googles allowing you to view it 3D doing a walkthrough.

There are huge numbers of possibilities and applications for the fourth transformation, most of which will be beneficial and useful (as long as we can turn off the ads from beacons in stores when we want to.) This technology can and will be misused, jacked, and manipulated by evildoers intent on fleecing, manipulating, and tracking us. The book discusses this. We need to insure this does not become the fourth tyrantsformation.

As always in books written by Israel and Scoble, the style is straight-forward, hugely informative, and written in a conversational style with lots of examples explaining their broader concepts.

I read this on a Kindle using my iPhone to look up links. Perhaps I will read their next book using AR glasses

Highly recommended. The fourth transformation is coming. They help us understand it now.

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