Chavez warns of war with Colombia.

Dead rebel’s laptop shows Chavez is funding rebels, Colombian police say.

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Won’t stop oil shipments to U.S.

It was a toothless threat anyway. If Venezuela stopped shipping oil to the US, the US would just buy it someplace else.

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Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has threatened to cut off oil sales to the U.S., said reports that making such a decision would hurt his country’s economy are false, and that Venezuelan oil can be sold anywhere.

Well of course it can. And by the same measure the US can buy oil anywhere, including from whoever Venezuela sells it to. At any given time, oil trades at the same price worldwide.

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President Hugo Chavez on Sunday threatened to cut off oil sales to the United States if Exxon Mobil Corp. wins court judgments to seize billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets.

John Robb says “might be an interesting test of the fungibility of oil…” I’d say oil is quite fungible, which means any oil is about the same as any other oil. So if Chavez refuses to sell oil to the US, the US can buy it elsewhere, including buying the oil that Venezuela sold to someone else. Because Venezuela would have to sell that oil elsewhere, as oil is the primary driver of their economy. But could they sell it at the same price or would buyers demand a lower price knowing Venezuela was flooded with supply?

It appears that Venezuela accounts for about 15% of US imported crude oil and petroleum. So, which country would be hurt more by a shut down of sales?

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Exxon has won a court decision which freezes $12bn in assets of the nationalized Venezuela Oil company in a dispute over Exxon’s investment of $750 million.

Bonds of the oil company dropped in response, and now only fetch 66.75 cents on the dollar, which, I think, makes them junk bonds.

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The Guardian reports on collusion between Colombia’s Farc and the Venezuela military, saying Venezuela is being used as the primary shipping point of Columbian cocaine out of South America. Given the amounts of money involved, it would seem naive or deliberately evasive to pretend such corruption couldn’t exist.

No source I spoke to accused Chávez himself of having a direct role in Colombia’s giant drug-trafficking business. Yet the same people I interviewed struggled to believe that Chávez was not aware of the collusion between his armed forces and the leadership of Farc, as they also found it difficult to imagine that he has no knowledge of the degree to which Farc is involved in the cocaine trade.

Were Chavez to interfere in the drug trade and corruption too overtly maybe the military, or at least parts of it, wouldn’t remain loyal to him.

A European diplomat with many years of experience in Latin America echoed this view. ‘The so-called anti-imperialist, socialist and Bolivarian nation that Chávez says he wants to create is en route to becoming a narco-state in the same way that Farc members have turned themselves into narco-guerrillas. Perhaps Chávez does not realise it but, unchecked, this phenomenon will corrode Venezuela like a cancer.

While the diplomat seems no friend of Chavez, he does have a point.

P.S.  No Mas FARC or Pizzo.

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Chavez is abandoning his socialist agenda “for now,” granting amnesty to right-wing coup plotters, replacing left-wingers in his cabinet, and signaling he wants to build alliances with the bourgeoisie.

New Statesman opines the recent defeat of socialism at the Venezuela polls had little to do with socialism and quite a lot to do with Chavistas becoming insiders.

A closer look at electoral patterns reveals a clear protest vote, not against a socialist agenda, but against corrupt administrations, at the national and the regional level.

The vote outcome has everything to do with the accession of many a Chavista to the rank of “insider” over the past eight years. This process has been gradual, and perhaps inevitable in a society in which institutionalised rentier-mechanisms have been endemic for decades.

But the contradiction between a radical socialist government agenda and the “Chavista elite”, bent on defending its share in the oil rent, effectively came to a head last year.

In other words, it’s a battle between the left Chavista street and the right Chavista elite, many of whom hold positions of power in the administration, and pretended to back the reforms while working against them and destabilized markets to create food shortages.

Thus, says the New Statesman, a weakened Chavez hasn’t the power to fight them and must make accommodations, at least for now, until he strengthens his mass party - assuming he can.

In any system of government, a primary task is to insure that a privileged elite does not gain control, enriching themselves at the expense of others. This clearly has  happened in socialism (USSR managerial class and current day China) as well as capitalism. Somehow, we need governments beholden and responsive to all, and not primarily to the few at the top.

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[On Saturday, Chavez] urged Venezuelans to see vote as a referendum on him.”It’s black and white — a vote against the reform is a vote against Chavez,” he said in a state television interview.

Reading leftie listservs and blogs today shows some sense of unreality among Chavistas, some of whom are determined to make this into a victory… somehow. Or that will be a victory once Chavez regroups, yes, that’s it, this defeat was a victory because it means he will regroup and then win.

Well, no. Chavez won re-election last December by 20%. He lost Sunday’s election by 1.5%. Thus, his support has dropped drastically, no matter what kind of happy face his supporters might wish to put on it.

His own loose cannon behavior in the final days before the referendum may have done him in. This would include repeatedly interrupting a speech by the Spanish foreign minister, saying advisers to the Columbian president want war, and that the US better not question the vote if he won else he’d cut off oil supplies - these might not have been well-received by moderates. Comments like these are aimed at his left flank - but they already supported him. However, the voter in the middle might well have thought, if he’s getting like this now, what will be be like in 20 years if he keeps getting re-elected? So they voted no.

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This from Larry Johnson, ex-CIA, terrorism expert, and political progressive (check his blogroll)

As the official bubble burster let me state for the record, this is patent nonsense. State Department officers do not write memos to Hayden. Particularly mid-level Foreign Service Officers. A CIA officer under diplomatic cover sends his communications to headquarters via an encoded message. We call these messages cables, harkening back to the days of telegraphs and telegrams.

This, in my judgment, is the work–very clumsy work at that–of the Venezuelan intelligence service eager to build on the truth that the United States has sought to oust Chavez. All of this is quite convenient with Venezuelan elections on the horizon. It may be hamhanded, but for internal Venezuelan consumption, this is brilliant psyops and should help Chavez further demonize the equally clumsy Americans.

Indeed, why would CIA leave a document like that lying around and not send it encrypted? Or even write it down at all? Sounds like a battle between dumb and dumber here.

Tip: Russell King.

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Red Squirrel details the enormous tension and conflict in Venezuela now, with the referendum vote on Saturday. Things are getting extremely polarized, with fighting in the streets, murder, and probable CIA intervention.

Venezuelan counterintelligence just released a document they say is a CIA memo outlining destabilization plans. Imagine the pressure-cooker atmosphere the release of the document must have created. And what it will be like if the lid blows off.

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Venezuelan student leader Stalin González (his real name, his parents are leftists) opposes Chavez on Marxist terms. His been shot at, gotten death threats, and is central in student opposition to the upcoming referendum in Venezuela which, if it passes, would rescind term limits for Chavez and make the central bank part of the government rather than being independent.

González believes that Chávez’s socialist rhetoric is a lie because the country has not set about to create a working class, instead surviving off its oil wealth.

“This government talks a lot, but it does very little,” González said. “Chávez isn’t a Marxist-Leninist, he’s a crazy military officer.”

While Chavezistas view an anti-referendum vote as blocking the road towards socialism, others, it is clear, see such a vote as blocking a power grab by Chavez.

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This appears to be because Chavez wants to take control of the central bank and is leaning on it to not make loans. While I applaud much of what Chavez has done, this is just dumb. Unless he wants hyperinflation.

Meanwhile, in the bizarro world of Wall Street, this bad news is being looked at as good news because it means the Fed might lower interest rates. I’m not sure who is crazier.

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From the Just Foreign Policy listserv

Hours after a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government in Venezuela in 2002, the International Monetary Fund declared its readiness to work with the coup government. How was this decision reached? What did they know, and when did they know it? Members of Congress are trying to find out.

More from their blog.

Sign the petition for Congress to investigate.

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As evidence, [the Venezuelan Communications Minister] cited Globovision showing footage of an assassination attempt against Pope John Paul II in 1981 accompanied by the song “This Does Not Stop Here,” sung by Ruben Blades.

“The conclusion of the specialists … is that (in this segment) they are inciting the assassination of the president of Venezuela,” Lara told reporters at the prosecutor’s office.

If ABC aired something like that here, the Secret Service might well investigate even if, to an outsider, the threat of the video seems a bit oblique.

The Venezuelan government, by their recent moves, is inviting right wing counter reaction. The question is, why these moves by the Venezuelan government now? Perhaps forces are in play we know nothing about. Turbulence ahead for Venezuela?

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Xeni Jardin at Boing Boing originally posted a rather anti-Chavez piece, then after getting the opposing view from readers, did a long piece with lots of comments from readers explaining the history and why they back what the Venezuelan government did. Thank you, Xeni.

Here’s some of the reader comments.

While normally a station losing a license would be a sad thing, this is a TV station that actively supported a coup against Chavez in 2002, and was partially responsible for the violence and deaths that took place at this time. These events, including the role of RCTV and others are well documented in the (award-winning) film “The Revolution will not be televised”.

–

Firstly, it is not being shut down. Chavez is not renewing the license for the use of the public airwaves.

The can still broadcast over cable, internet, and satellite. Secondly, the poster failed to mention that RCTV openly supported and helped a coup of his government that was partially successful. Chavez did not shut it down immediately but allowed the contract to expire 5 years later.

He also allows other networks that are openly critical of him to continue, just not the ones that tell people to overthrow a democratically elected government.

It seems plausible that the US would do the same if ABC openly supported and helped enact a coup of the government.

Quoting Colin Burgon in The Guardian

Almost all Venezuelan newspapers remain in private hands. The press is free to report, and express opinions, without government interference. Most do so with considerable brio on a daily basis. No media outlet has encountered licensing problems for the expression of political views. No journalist has been imprisoned or punished for report or comment.

In the UK, if Channel 4 aided an attempted coup against the government that resulted in civil unrest and even death, would anyone be supporting the renewal of its licence? RCTV has lost its licence because its wealthy owners slanted news coverage to provide support to the April 2002 coup against Chávez and the elected government. This will not be news to those who gathered in parliament last week to view John Pilger’s excellent documentary The War on Democracy, which shows footage of RCTV involvement.

And in a letter to the Guardian Burgon said:

This is not a case of censorship. In Venezuela more than 90% of the media is privately owned and virulently opposed to the Chávez government.

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We recognise that the non-renewal of the broadcasting licence for RCTV is a legitimate and democratic decision of the Venezuelan government. The reason for this action is not that RCTV is against the government of Hugo Chavez, but rather that this TV channel participated directly in the organisation of the military coup against the democratically elected government. We welcome the decision to set up a new public access TV station “TVes”. The problem of the media in Venezuela is not that the government is curtailing freedom of expression but rather the need to democratise access to the media, which is dominated by a handful of monopoly groups that use their position to sabotage the expressed will of the majority of the Venezuelan people.

That’s a key point. Chavez has won several elections, and they were internationally monitored and declared fair. RCTV did participate directly in a coup attempt against the state, and when the time came to renew their license, the government said no. Any government on the planet would have done the same.

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Email from Patrick McElwee

The Venezuelan government has legally decided not to renew the broadcast license of a major TV network, Radio Caracas Television (RCTV). RCTV is overtly opposed to the government. That opposition included direct support for the 2002 military coup attempt against President Hugo Chavez.

[My Common Dreams] article also reveals that the policy people at Human Rights Watch, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and Reporters Without Borders - all of whom have criticized the RCTV decision - cannot say that RCTV would get its license renewed in the United States or Europe.

No government anywhere would allow a TV network that had supported overthrowing them to continue to broadcast. Had this happened in, say, Britain, the same critics would no doubt be applauding the decision. Their anti-Chavez bias is showing.

The House and the Senate are likely to take up a measure today criticizing the Chavez government; the European Parliament passed a similar motion this morning, although a tiny fraction of the parliamentarians were in attendance; and the media is going to be all over this. RCTV goes off the air Sunday night.

Let’s get the word out about this in advance of the usual venomous right wing attacks on Venezuela for doing what any country would have done.

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A little bird tells us

This week Dubya will be in Montevideo, Uruguay, at about the same time Hugo Chávez will be visiting the Río de la Plata in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Will there be fireworks across the River Plate? Stay tuned!

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“It would be a good way out, not only for the United States, but it would reduce the tremendous tension around the world … and perhaps this way, Papa Bush won’t have to suffer the sight of what his son is about to face.”

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Besides indulging in the occasional odd blog I also podcast. In fact it was through podcasting that I came upon Polizeros Bob in cyberspace — ie: yours and mein host — in the first instance. Now I got myself an LA franchise.

Among my podcastables is VenSol: the Venezuela Solidarity podcast. VenSol carries reports from Caracas and audio generated by VenezuelaAnalysis

But the podcast also offers a great networking tool and my fellow podcastor Warwick Fry — who works out of NimFM Community Radio here in Australia — runs LatinRadical . In the latest edition, Warwick showcases his new song on Bono — the man from the band U2 — who is sponsoring a game which offers a Venezuelan invasion scenario. Since Bono is touring Australia next month the local solidarity community was keen to mark his visit with protests. What better way than with a song?

Latin American solidarity activism has been big time here since the early seventies when Chileans arrived in exile. Even the current president of Chile — Michelle Bachelet — spent part of her exile here.

So while we may be a world away, like so many world wide, Australians are looking to Latin America for lessons and inspiration. So we get to know a lot here about Yankee imperialismo too.

I was also helping out a new blog that one of the leading activists here has instigated: Bolivia Rising. So if you are keen on “the axis of Evo” maybe you’ll appreciate the translations archived there from the original Spanish.

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“He’s an alcoholic and a sick man.”

All Out for the Fight was there, and details Chavez’s speech, which was also about education, his gaining inspiration from Lincoln, Twain, and Whitman, as well as slamming US foreign policy and Dubya.

Well, someone’s got to do it. None of the poodles in Congress are.

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Democrats warn Chavez: Don’t bash Bush

Uh, earth to Democrats. Chavez already DID bash Bush. And in doing so, showed far more guts and integrity than most of you spineless weasels ever have, given that you vote for torture and war, then pretend to oppose Bush.

Unlike Democratic “leadership,” Chavez genuinely stands for something, and is willing to fight for it too, certainly reasons why his stature and influence is steadily increasing in Latin America and the world. You Democrats might want to try that approach one day.

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I’ve been tracking this down keenly. The speech is extraordinary and, with a little bit of luck, I may be able to share the video of same.

Anyone that can throw out such lines as(in reference to G.W.Bush) –”The devil has been here — you can smell the sulphur” — is offering out-of-the-ordinary fare compared to what one is used to from that assembly.

Anyway , I’m Dave Riley, and as such I hope to share a few thoughts here at Zeros especially my take(so I say) on various attempts to regroup the left. I usually blog here and podcast more generally from the northern suburbs of Brisbane, Australia.

Yes, that’s right, I live forty minutes from the zoological home of the now deceased Crocodile Hunter, Steve Irwin. Crikey! I do! I have never been there — to this zoo. Such saintliness and envionemntal warriorship was on our doorstep, so to speak, and I’ve missed the miracle: all the caring and sharing of all that reach out and touch the wildlife to ‘feel’ the danger up close. But I haven’t missed the mourning! ‘Tis amazing. Austria may have their Arnold (now known as ‘The Executioner’ there). You may have remade him as your beloved Guvenator. But we’ve been ordained by Steve Irwin who believed that our present prime minister– John Howard –was the very best. Such a friend as JH the ‘wildlife’ can do without.

Anyhow,nuff said: it’s about time I threw a few more crocodile steaks on the barbee…

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Hugo Chavez speaking at the United Nations about George Bush being there the day before.

“Yesterday, the devil came here,” Chavez said, drawing giggles from the audience as he crossed himself, looked toward the heavens and said the podium “still smells of sulfur today.”

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Straight from Uncle Sam

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