Molly Mew takes an anarchist view of the Georgia war, proclaiming neutrality in wars between states, and hopes against hope that the US Left doesn’t do its usual knee jerk reaction and mindlessly back whoever George Bush opposes. Yeah, that’s showing real independent, critical thinking, isn’t it? George Bush is bad so Putin must be good. The more obvious conclusion to those not wearing ideological blinders is that thugs abound on all sides here and few if any deserve support.

Another certainty is that there will be a “leftist” response to the conflict, centered especially in the USA, where a mindless “taking of sides” will be the way it is described. The throbbing heart of “anti-Americanism” is actually in the US left which, in its so-called innocence cannot imagine any evil in the world not connected with their own country. Knee jerk support for the Russian point of view will be their response, and this will not, unfortunately, be confined to the decaying corpse of the old Communist Party. It will be the “common sense” of far too many in the USA (and those across the world who imitate the US left) who have fixated on their own empire to the exclusion of any common sense view of how states are the same the world over. Sad but true.

An interesting corollary to such a blindered approach is that by believing the US must be behind all machinations in the world you also must believe the US is all powerful and unstoppable. Yet the recent events in Georgia clearly show this to be false. The US isn’t in control at all.

Molly Mew also features a translation from a Russian anarchist site calling on solidiers on all sides to disobey orders and not back imperialist wars fought for money and power.

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Paul Krugman in the NY Times

The war in Georgia isn’t that big a deal economically. But it does mark the end of the Pax Americana — the era in which the United States more or less maintained a monopoly on the use of military force. And that raises some real questions about the future of globalization.

The Unrepentant Marxist wonders, Has Krugman been reading Lenin?

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“Condoleezza Rice forces deal on Georgia to end the war” says the headline. Except, she hasn’t forced anything because the Russians have no intention of leaving nor are they signatories on the deal.

Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, warned Russia that it must withdraw its troops behind the boundaries of two disputed Georgian enclaves as she secured a ceasefire agreement that leaves open the possibility of continued incursions.

How can you have a ceasefire when incursions continue? In other words, this is no deal at all. Just meowing by the apparently toothless and clawless US paper tiger.

Russian convoy moves deeper inside Georgia: witness.

Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles.

Lest you think I’m somehow cheerleading for Putin, not hardly. He’s as thuggish as it gets. The real change though is that the US has little influence or leverage here, something the ruling class is just now becoming dimly aware of. The chances of a wider war grow daily.

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The Americans are threatening to have Russia expelled from the WTO and G8. But this may be a serious overestimation of the American’s own influence over these bodies.

What the Americans seem unable to detect is that the wind is changing.

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Georgian Villages in South Ossetia burnt, looted

Russian forces sink Georgian ships

US forces to be sent to Georgia

Talk about an escalation: Bush is sending in the navy and the airforce. You would have to be dead from the neck up to think that this is just about ‘delivering humanitarian aid’. You don’t need hawk airjets and naval vessels to deliver relief supplies. You do need them if you intend to fight somebody.

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This is a Grad launcher. Georgia used them in their initial assault in an urban area against a province they claim as their own. Madness.

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This is not some faux-conflict that was ginned up by John McCain and the neoconservatives as some kind of electoral season strategy. And, even if it was (and it’s not) it’s gone far beyond that now.

I can hear the Left now laughing at Asmus and Holbrooke’s audacity in accusing Russia of neo-imperial policies. Isn’t this conflict taking place in Russia’s sphere of influence? Hasn’t the West been relentlessly provocative? Didn’t Russia warn us about the eastward expansion of NATO, anti-missile defenses in the Czech Republic, and the independence of Kosovo?

Yes, yes they did. And it doesn’t matter an iota to our bi-partisan foreign policy Establishment.

Obama will defend that policy, no question. However, the US can huff and puff all it wants, but unless the Pentagon sends in fighter planes and tanks (which they won’t) then Russia will continue invading Georgia. This will be a huge loss of face for the US which in turn might well make US foreign policy seriously more belligerent.

Mikhail Gorbachev

What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against “small, defenseless Georgia” is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

Quite possibly true, but Russia is now invading areas outside of South Ossetia, and that’s hardly justifiable either.

Before this thing veers totally out of control, maybe everyone needs to take a chill pill?

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BBC News was fired on while reporting from the front lines in Georgia. The image is from the same report.

From DealBreaker, a serious, non-snarky (and for them, being non-snarky is quite unusual!) discussion of what’s happening in Georgia.

Who started it?

JR: “De jure, the Georgians. De facto, the Russians.

No, really — Who started it? Who can we blame?

DV: “The Georgians are to blame for being hotheaded and for not thinking out their game-plan; the Russians are to blame for taking the retaliation to a level so disproportionate that it seems more shocking by the hour.”

War batters Russian markets

Many very powerful people in Russia are going to begin losing significant sums because of the Kremlin’s military misadventures, which could lead to a variety of new, unpredictable pressures on the leadership.

The ramifications, fallout, and unpredicted consequences from this war (and it is a war now) will be long-lasting. While some on the Left are desperately trying to figure out who to support, I say the choice between the lesser of two thugs still means you’re supporting a thug. However -

From Craig Murray, former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan.

But we cannot just say that all the major powers involved are behaving terribly. That is true but not enough. Lenin’s Tomb has an excellent analysis. But it is marred by the tendency of the left to think anyone opposed to Bush must be a good thing, and so give Putin the benefit of the doubt. Putin has plenty of blood on his hands also, and not only in Chechnya.

The truth is that life for ordinary people in the ex Soviet countries which have had “Orange Revolutions” like Ukraine and Georgia, is much, much better than in those which have not, like Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. That is so evident as to be undeniable to anyone who has actually been there.

Yet resurgent Russian nationalism is a major threat to Europe, and so Georgia must be supported as Russia tries to increase its hegemony over the former Soviet Union.

But if Georgia must be supported, then the question becomes - how? Sending in fighter planes? Had the US wanted to truly support Georgia, wouldn’t just the threat of sending in fighter planes have backed off Russia? The US and Europe have done such small amounts of saber-rattling that you have to wonder why.

Yes, the tendency of some on the Left to support Putin because he supposedly stands against imperialism is bizarre indeed. (I’ve actually heard some make the same argument for Mugabe.) Putin is an imperialist, and a billionaire exploiter at that. Thinking the foe of my foe must be a friend is simplistic, naive, and dangerous.

I don’t have any answers. Neither, to my knowledge, does anyone else. We are in uncharted, murky territory.

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The big question is whether Saakashvili is another US proxy who over-estimated US support (q.v. Saddam Hussein), or whether the US put him up to the attack to distract the Russians prior to some sort of operation against Iran.

Just paranoid speculation, right?

[Kuwait] has reportedly activated its “Emergency War Plan” as a massive U.S. and European armada is reported heading for the region.

The fear is the armada will blockade Iran.

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Just noticed this in Wordpress.com fastest growing blogs

http://southosetia.wordpress.com/

Do you know the truth of war in South Ossetia?

The real people, real histories, real events…

The Georgian murderers!

Apparent on the scene blogging from those in South Ossetia whose homes have been destroyed, lives shattered, friends and family killed by Georgian troops.

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First, from the comments on Lawyers, Guns, and Money

I have this nagging feeling that Rice and Cheney - and by extension, McCain - knew full well that the Georgians were going to get crushed but wished them luck regardless. That’s exactly what they wanted: A credible boogeyman to scare the Beltway crowd and the other usual suspects since Iran’s refusing to rise to their bait.

In the prelude do the Gulf War, didn’t the US pass a signal to Saddam they would do nothing if he invaded Kuwait?

Georgia seems to have badly miscalculated. Did they think US reinforcements would be forthcoming?

Just wondering.

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Says Craig Murray

An immediate ceasefire is required now and a de facto Russian annexation of South Ossetia must not be permitted, unless we eventually want a war for East Ukraine. Sadly, the West will learn the wrong long-term lesson. The answer is not to strengthen NATO. NATO is part of the cause of the problem, not the solution. By encircling and humiliating Russia, not least with new missile systems, NATO has created the climate in Russia so favourable to Putin.

A American in Russian custody?

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Georgia calls for Ossetia ceasefire but Moscow appears to be ignoring them.

At the same time, a Georgia minister says their troops are ‘merely regrouping’ and not retreating from South Ossetia. Russian media confirms that, saying Georgia troops have broken through their defenses in Tskhinvali in South Ossetia. So, it certainly sounds like Georgia is ignoring their own cease fire too.

Russia prepares naval blockade of Georgia in the Black Sea.

BP says pipeline still flowing to Georgia ports. However the primary pipeline through Turkey was damaged by a PKK bomb. There are conflicting reports as to whether pipeline and port facilities in Georgia are still intact. Also, as reported here yesterday, Azerbaijan said they would not pump oil until hostilities are over.

Lawyers, Guns, and Money has been posting regular updates on the war and is highly recommended. Check this tidbit from a comment to their post yesterday about the war.

And this is an interesting discussion about how an Ossetian war would go from March, 2008:

http://www.milkavkaz.net/forum/v…c.php?p=190#190

The consensus is blitzkrieg by Georgia would be the best bet.

So obviously, this scenario that we see here has already been thought out by both sides of this conflict if an analysis of the tactics that Georgia might have used on the attack, and actually did use, was already being discussed on russian language forums four months ago.

I guess this is only a surprise to the 99.9 percent of the world that wasn’t paying attention.

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An [Georgia] interior ministry spokesman told the BBC it was not a military defeat but a necessary step to protect civilians from a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

Right. Not a defeat at all. Why would anyone think that after attacking your own breakaway province then retreating rapidly in the face of a vastly larger and better equipped army could be considered a defeat.

Russia now controls South Ossetia and may be attacking the capitol of Georgia.

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Even if the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline were operational, which it apparently isn’t, there is little chance that oil will be piped through it for the next 15 days. And, uh, why are they just declaring war for 15 days - and asking for a cease-fire at the same time?

Georgia is also recalling its troops from Iraq and they are being ferried back by US planes. Ya, that’ll calm the waters.

Let’s hope we aren’t having an Archduke Ferdinand moment whose assassination in 1914 upset the balance of power and led to WWI (although the war probably would have happened anyway.) Not that anything remotely like WWI is coming but the balance of power is most definitely being upset in the Caucasus.

PS Azerbaijan halts oil exports to Georgia ports

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The harbor of Poti in Georgia is near the major oil terminal of Supsa in the Black Sea.

Georgia is reporting the harbor has been destroyed. This major secondary route for oil on Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is now closed and the primary route to the Mediterranean through Turkey has been shut down because of sabotage by the PKK.

Thus the pipeline, over which 1.15 million barrels of oil a day travel, now appears to be completely shut down.

BBC on Georgia

You don’t start a military showdown with someone who can turn the gas off.

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Image from Asia Times in 2005 who has useful background on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that supplies the US, EU, and Israel.

The pipeline was bombed in Turkey just a few days ago.

The PKK, a Kurdish separatist organization, has claimed responsibility, but the bombing happened outside their traditional zone of operation.

Turkey is saying the pipeline fire happened for “technical reasons” uh huh, while the PKK promises more attacks and predictions are the pipeline will be closed there for up to several weeks.

An Azerbiajan news source from Aug. 4 ominously reports the pipeline could be blown up in Georgia should hostilities start - and electricity could be cut off too.

Under consideration are different options from opening of “second front” and disconnection of power supply to Georgia from Ingur electric power station [in Abkhazia, an autonomous part of Georgia] to acts of sabotage on territory of Georgia. It has been announced unofficially that in case of start of hostilities in Southern Osetia, the specially trained saboteurs can blast BTC pipeline.

The main consumers of oil exported via BTC pipeline route are the United States, European Union and Israel.

The above, as mentioned, is dated Aug. 4 - which is before the overt hostilities started.

Tip: PeakEnergy.blogspot.com

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Georgia declares state of war yet calls for cease-fire. Is this due to muddled reports from the fog of war or someone bit off more than they can chew?

By all accounts, Georgia started it by shelling South Ossetia. But Russia tossed a match on gasoline by invading. Some on the Left say the US was behind it all, somehow forgetting that Russia is basically a thugocracy now. Most of all, for it to explode into such sickening violence so quickly means both sides knew it was coming and wanted it to happen (or figured it was unavoidable.)

The theory this was done on the opening day of the Olympics so people wouldn’t notice is silly. It’s headline news worldwide.

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(Detail of map from University of Colorado. Click for full map.)

While the US has certainly been training and arming troops from Georgia, Russia has been doing the same in South Ossetia, and indeed their tanks have entered there - in other words, they’ve invaded another country.

Hold on for this shocker.

Analysts said the escalating conflict in South Ossetia risked major consequences for a region that has become a test of the post-Cold War balance of power, as well as a key energy transit point for Europe which needs oil and gas from Asia.

Lest we overlook the obvious, Russia wants control of that just as much as the US does.

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