Letter From Georgia

Blairwatch has a confidential correspondent inside Georgia, who sent us the following report, mainly focusing on the humanitarian crisis. We will shortly have another report and photos from Gori

Georgia Update:

When the USSR fell, 1 civilian war and 2 wars – in districts of Georgia - Abkhazia and South Osetia began. As a result we have 247,000 IDP’s ( refugees)  from Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Unfortunately before the conflict and at the moment, the economic situation in Georgia is very bad: unemployment is running at 50%; the average monthly pension is 45 US.

Pr. Saakashvili was not a popular president in Georgia until the conflict started. With the conflict the Georgian nation united and forgot all the other problems.

The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. We feel that we are not alone and supported by the EU and USA , that gives us the hope of future.

Russian tanks went trough the Abkhazia to Georgia and took control over the western part of Georgia. The other part of Russian army went from South Ossetia to Gori 60 km from Tbilisi. They were bombing different cities in Georgia . With Russian army came the Kazaks and Ossetians , they started robbing the shops and later the apartments and private houses of inhabitants of Gori and the villages around. One day the panic started in Tbilisi everybody thought that the Russians will take the capital.

We received the new wave of refuges in Georgia due to this conflict. Many thousands of Georgians left Gori, Georgian villages around South Ossetia and cities in the western part of Georgia to escape from the bombing and war. Many of them lost their homes (they were destroyed by bombings). They all come to Tbilisi and the eastern part of Georgia. The Georgian government tried to accommodate them, but there are too many of them and there is no place for all. Especially since many of the state building were already engaged by the previous line of refugees in the beginning of 1990’s . There was no exact figures for the new wave of refugees , according to some officials there were 120 thousand , others were saying 118 thousand. That is a real humanitarian disaster; many of them do not have enough food, medication, clothes.

Many of the schools, preschools, polyclinics and state buildings have become refugee centres. I have visited a few such centres. The situation in some of them is fairly difficult.. Many of the refugees live in the empty rooms sleeping on the mattresses right on the floor, tables or desks. Many of them do not know where their relatives are and if they are alive.

The problem is that the aid which is given to refugees is not equal as well as the quality and quantity. Some collective centres have mattresses, blankets and even kind of military bags others have only mattresses. The similar situation applies to food . In some places the food is delivered once a day in the others twice a day. Some collective centres receive only military packages of dry food, which is only suitable for a short time.

The situation in Georgia is still fairly difficult. The Russian army left Gori and the road from western part to eastern part of Georgia is open now, but Russians opened a few check points in the western part of Georgia and they control they feel themselves free in the city Zugdidi near the board with Abkhazia (10 km) and have big check point with military vehicles and tanks at the seaport Poti.

10 NATO military vessels came to the Black sea to support Georgia.

During the conflict Angela Merkel, Sarkozi and presidents of 5 Eastern European countries came to Georgia ,that has helped to sing a cease-fire. The Foreign ministers of different Western European countries visited Georgia during the conflict helping to resolve it.

Unfortunately many people from Georgian Side are missing especially among the soldiers. The parents of soldiers are trying to get the information about the location of their missing children, but cannot get the answers . Many of dead Georgians were buried in the common graves, and now it will be difficult to recognize them. Unofficially there are more than 2000 of dead from Georgia side. Though our officials say that the number of dead does not exceed 200.

For now some of the refugees ( who were from Gori) have returned. Those ones who lived near the South Ossetia, cannot return and do not know when they will go back. Some homes are destroyed or burned, due to this many of them cannot return even to Gori.

Some of the aid which is coming to Georgia from USA and other International organisations now is kept at the warehouses, in case of the conflict continues.

Russia confirmed the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In return Georgia had stopped the diplomatic relationship with Russia and called the ambassador back to Georgia, Though the consular department still works.

In Tbilisi everything is quiet now. There is no panic shops and banks are working.

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Cyberattacks on Georgia preceded the war

The attacks apparently were directed by Russian sites.

From the comments on Schneier.com

I’ve noticed, as others have on slashdot a large drop in email spam since these cyber attacks - maybe the Georgian’s were big spammers until they got hit - or maybe the Russians took their guns off us while they attacked Georgia.

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An anarchist view of South Ossetia

Molly Mew takes an anarchist view of the Georgia war, proclaiming neutrality in wars between states, and hopes against hope that the US Left doesn’t do its usual knee jerk reaction and mindlessly back whoever George Bush opposes. Yeah, that’s showing real independent, critical thinking, isn’t it? George Bush is bad so Putin must be good. The more obvious conclusion to those not wearing ideological blinders is that thugs abound on all sides here and few if any deserve support.

Another certainty is that there will be a “leftist” response to the conflict, centered especially in the USA, where a mindless “taking of sides” will be the way it is described. The throbbing heart of “anti-Americanism” is actually in the US left which, in its so-called innocence cannot imagine any evil in the world not connected with their own country. Knee jerk support for the Russian point of view will be their response, and this will not, unfortunately, be confined to the decaying corpse of the old Communist Party. It will be the “common sense” of far too many in the USA (and those across the world who imitate the US left) who have fixated on their own empire to the exclusion of any common sense view of how states are the same the world over. Sad but true.

An interesting corollary to such a blindered approach is that by believing the US must be behind all machinations in the world you also must believe the US is all powerful and unstoppable. Yet the recent events in Georgia clearly show this to be false. The US isn’t in control at all.

Molly Mew also features a translation from a Russian anarchist site calling on solidiers on all sides to disobey orders and not back imperialist wars fought for money and power.

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The Great Illusion

Paul Krugman in the NY Times

The war in Georgia isn’t that big a deal economically. But it does mark the end of the Pax Americana — the era in which the United States more or less maintained a monopoly on the use of military force. And that raises some real questions about the future of globalization.

The Unrepentant Marxist wonders, Has Krugman been reading Lenin?

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Wishful Thinking Headline of the Day

Condoleezza Rice forces deal on Georgia to end the war” says the headline. Except, she hasn’t forced anything because the Russians have no intention of leaving nor are they signatories on the deal.

Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, warned Russia that it must withdraw its troops behind the boundaries of two disputed Georgian enclaves as she secured a ceasefire agreement that leaves open the possibility of continued incursions.

How can you have a ceasefire when incursions continue? In other words, this is no deal at all. Just meowing by the apparently toothless and clawless US paper tiger.

Russian convoy moves deeper inside Georgia: witness.

Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles.

Lest you think I’m somehow cheerleading for Putin, not hardly. He’s as thuggish as it gets. The real change though is that the US has little influence or leverage here, something the ruling class is just now becoming dimly aware of. The chances of a wider war grow daily.

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Dangerous escalation by the US

The Americans are threatening to have Russia expelled from the WTO and G8. But this may be a serious overestimation of the American’s own influence over these bodies.

What the Americans seem unable to detect is that the wind is changing.

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The ceasefire that wasn’t

Georgian Villages in South Ossetia burnt, looted

Russian forces sink Georgian ships

US forces to be sent to Georgia

Talk about an escalation: Bush is sending in the navy and the airforce. You would have to be dead from the neck up to think that this is just about ‘delivering humanitarian aid’. You don’t need hawk airjets and naval vessels to deliver relief supplies. You do need them if you intend to fight somebody.

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Georgia used Grad launchers against South Ossetia

This is a Grad launcher. Georgia used them in their initial assault in an urban area against a province they claim as their own. Madness.

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Our bi-partisan foreign policy in Georgia

This is not some faux-conflict that was ginned up by John McCain and the neoconservatives as some kind of electoral season strategy. And, even if it was (and it’s not) it’s gone far beyond that now.

I can hear the Left now laughing at Asmus and Holbrooke’s audacity in accusing Russia of neo-imperial policies. Isn’t this conflict taking place in Russia’s sphere of influence? Hasn’t the West been relentlessly provocative? Didn’t Russia warn us about the eastward expansion of NATO, anti-missile defenses in the Czech Republic, and the independence of Kosovo?

Yes, yes they did. And it doesn’t matter an iota to our bi-partisan foreign policy Establishment.

Obama will defend that policy, no question. However, the US can huff and puff all it wants, but unless the Pentagon sends in fighter planes and tanks (which they won’t) then Russia will continue invading Georgia. This will be a huge loss of face for the US which in turn might well make US foreign policy seriously more belligerent.

Mikhail Gorbachev

What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against “small, defenseless Georgia” is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

Quite possibly true, but Russia is now invading areas outside of South Ossetia, and that’s hardly justifiable either.

Before this thing veers totally out of control, maybe everyone needs to take a chill pill?

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BBC News fired on by Russian jet

BBC News was fired on while reporting from the front lines in Georgia. The image is from the same report.

From DealBreaker, a serious, non-snarky (and for them, being non-snarky is quite unusual!) discussion of what’s happening in Georgia.

Who started it?

JR: “De jure, the Georgians. De facto, the Russians.

No, really — Who started it? Who can we blame?

DV: “The Georgians are to blame for being hotheaded and for not thinking out their game-plan; the Russians are to blame for taking the retaliation to a level so disproportionate that it seems more shocking by the hour.”

War batters Russian markets

Many very powerful people in Russia are going to begin losing significant sums because of the Kremlin’s military misadventures, which could lead to a variety of new, unpredictable pressures on the leadership.

The ramifications, fallout, and unpredicted consequences from this war (and it is a war now) will be long-lasting. While some on the Left are desperately trying to figure out who to support, I say the choice between the lesser of two thugs still means you’re supporting a thug. However -

From Craig Murray, former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan.

But we cannot just say that all the major powers involved are behaving terribly. That is true but not enough. Lenin’s Tomb has an excellent analysis. But it is marred by the tendency of the left to think anyone opposed to Bush must be a good thing, and so give Putin the benefit of the doubt. Putin has plenty of blood on his hands also, and not only in Chechnya.

The truth is that life for ordinary people in the ex Soviet countries which have had “Orange Revolutions” like Ukraine and Georgia, is much, much better than in those which have not, like Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. That is so evident as to be undeniable to anyone who has actually been there.

Yet resurgent Russian nationalism is a major threat to Europe, and so Georgia must be supported as Russia tries to increase its hegemony over the former Soviet Union.

But if Georgia must be supported, then the question becomes - how? Sending in fighter planes? Had the US wanted to truly support Georgia, wouldn’t just the threat of sending in fighter planes have backed off Russia? The US and Europe have done such small amounts of saber-rattling that you have to wonder why.

Yes, the tendency of some on the Left to support Putin because he supposedly stands against imperialism is bizarre indeed. (I’ve actually heard some make the same argument for Mugabe.) Putin is an imperialist, and a billionaire exploiter at that. Thinking the foe of my foe must be a friend is simplistic, naive, and dangerous.

I don’t have any answers. Neither, to my knowledge, does anyone else. We are in uncharted, murky territory.

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South Ossetia war blog

Just noticed this in Wordpress.com fastest growing blogs

http://southosetia.wordpress.com/

Do you know the truth of war in South Ossetia?

The real people, real histories, real events…

The Georgian murderers!

Apparent on the scene blogging from those in South Ossetia whose homes have been destroyed, lives shattered, friends and family killed by Georgian troops.

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Abkhazia starts war with Georgia

From the Russia Today channel on YouTube (some interesting stuff here, news you might not find elsewhere)

The situation is escalating in Georgia’s second breakaway republic - Abkhazia. Its troops are on the move towards the security zone in the Gali region close to the border with Georgia. Meanwhile they are continuing a military operation to dislodge Georgian forces in the upper Kodori Gorge in northern Abkhazia.

Tip: P in the comments here.

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Some speculation

First, from the comments on Lawyers, Guns, and Money

I have this nagging feeling that Rice and Cheney - and by extension, McCain - knew full well that the Georgians were going to get crushed but wished them luck regardless. That’s exactly what they wanted: A credible boogeyman to scare the Beltway crowd and the other usual suspects since Iran’s refusing to rise to their bait.

In the prelude do the Gulf War, didn’t the US pass a signal to Saddam they would do nothing if he invaded Kuwait?

Georgia seems to have badly miscalculated. Did they think US reinforcements would be forthcoming?

Just wondering.

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There are no good guys, but we must be most wary of Russia

Says Craig Murray

An immediate ceasefire is required now and a de facto Russian annexation of South Ossetia must not be permitted, unless we eventually want a war for East Ukraine. Sadly, the West will learn the wrong long-term lesson. The answer is not to strengthen NATO. NATO is part of the cause of the problem, not the solution. By encircling and humiliating Russia, not least with new missile systems, NATO has created the climate in Russia so favourable to Putin.

A American in Russian custody?

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South Ossetia update

Georgia calls for Ossetia ceasefire but Moscow appears to be ignoring them.

At the same time, a Georgia minister says their troops are ‘merely regrouping’ and not retreating from South Ossetia. Russian media confirms that, saying Georgia troops have broken through their defenses in Tskhinvali in South Ossetia. So, it certainly sounds like Georgia is ignoring their own cease fire too.

Russia prepares naval blockade of Georgia in the Black Sea.

BP says pipeline still flowing to Georgia ports. However the primary pipeline through Turkey was damaged by a PKK bomb. There are conflicting reports as to whether pipeline and port facilities in Georgia are still intact. Also, as reported here yesterday, Azerbaijan said they would not pump oil until hostilities are over.

Lawyers, Guns, and Money has been posting regular updates on the war and is highly recommended. Check this tidbit from a comment to their post yesterday about the war.

And this is an interesting discussion about how an Ossetian war would go from March, 2008:

http://www.milkavkaz.net/forum/v…c.php?p=190#190

The consensus is blitzkrieg by Georgia would be the best bet.

So obviously, this scenario that we see here has already been thought out by both sides of this conflict if an analysis of the tactics that Georgia might have used on the attack, and actually did use, was already being discussed on russian language forums four months ago.

I guess this is only a surprise to the 99.9 percent of the world that wasn’t paying attention.

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Georgia pulls out of South Ossetia

An [Georgia] interior ministry spokesman told the BBC it was not a military defeat but a necessary step to protect civilians from a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

Right. Not a defeat at all. Why would anyone think that after attacking your own breakaway province then retreating rapidly in the face of a vastly larger and better equipped army could be considered a defeat.

Russia now controls South Ossetia and may be attacking the capitol of Georgia.

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Georgia declares ’state of war’for 15 days

Even if the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline were operational, which it apparently isn’t, there is little chance that oil will be piped through it for the next 15 days. And, uh, why are they just declaring war for 15 days - and asking for a cease-fire at the same time?

Georgia is also recalling its troops from Iraq and they are being ferried back by US planes. Ya, that’ll calm the waters.

Let’s hope we aren’t having an Archduke Ferdinand moment whose assassination in 1914 upset the balance of power and led to WWI (although the war probably would have happened anyway.) Not that anything remotely like WWI is coming but the balance of power is most definitely being upset in the Caucasus.

PS Azerbaijan halts oil exports to Georgia ports

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Secondary pipeline access in Georgia destroyed by Russia

The harbor of Poti in Georgia is near the major oil terminal of Supsa in the Black Sea.

Georgia is reporting the harbor has been destroyed. This major secondary route for oil on Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is now closed and the primary route to the Mediterranean through Turkey has been shut down because of sabotage by the PKK.

Thus the pipeline, over which 1.15 million barrels of oil a day travel, now appears to be completely shut down.

BBC on Georgia

You don’t start a military showdown with someone who can turn the gas off.

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