The US in Iraq: can’t stay, won’t go

The US will find itself forced to remain in Iraq despite an inability to achieve any meaningful victory conditions. The reason for this is simple. Iraq is a core producer of oil for global markets. Control of this oil cannot be ceded to either the guerrillas or Iran under any meaningful interpretation of US policy. Further, a full US withdrawal would put Saudi Arabia at risk — the collapse of both of these oil producers in tandem would plunge the global economy into a depression.

While this may be accurate – and it certainly demonstrates the imperialist lunacy underlying the Iraq invasion – it implies the US can still control and shape events in Iraq when it’s increasingly clear it can’t.

The Iraq Study Group favors a gradual withdrawal while Dubya persists in his delusional “stay the course” madness. While watching this fight within the ruling class might be amusing, people are dying over there, and even the Baker plan implies the US needs to maintains control politically, which is just more imperialism and more doomed plans. None of them are asking Iraqis what they want and seem oblivious to the insurgency and to the very real possibility the US will be defeated and forced to leave, as happened in Vietnam.

Here’s the reality:

U.S. can do little to stop civil war in Iraq, experts say

Of course, none of this would have happened had the US not invaded based on lies.

  • You make many good points in your article. I would like to supplement them with some information:

    I am a 2 tour Vietnam Veteran who recently retired after 36 years of working in the Defense Industrial Complex on many of the weapons systems being used by our forces as we speak.

    If you are interested in a view of the inside of the Pentagon procurement process from Vietnam to Iraq please check the posting at my blog entitled, “Odyssey of Armements”

    The Pentagon is a giant,incredibly complex establishment,budgeted in excess of $500B per year. The Rumsfelds, the Adminisitrations and the Congressmen come and go but the real machinery of policy and procurement keeps grinding away, presenting the politicos who arrive with detail and alternatives slanted to perpetuate itself.

    How can any newcomer, be he a President, a Congressman or even the Sec. Def. to be – Mr. Gates- understand such complexity, particulary if heretofore he has not had the clearance to get the full details?

    Answer- he can’t. Therefor he accepts the alternatives provided by the career establishment that never goes away and he hopes he makes the right choices. Or he is influenced by a lobbyist or two representing companies in his district or special interest groups.

    From a practical standpoint, policy and war decisions are made far below the levels of the talking heads who take the heat or the credit for the results.

    This situation is unfortunate but it is ablsolute fact. Take it from one who has been to war and worked in the establishment.

    This giant policy making and war machine will eventually come apart and have to be put back together to operate smaller, leaner and on less fuel. But that won’t happen unitil it hits a brick wall at high speed.

    We will then have to run a Volkswagon instead of a Caddy and get along somehow. We better start practicing now and get off our high horse. Our golden aura in the world is beginning to dull from arrogance.

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