The US will find itself forced to remain in Iraq despite an inability to achieve any meaningful victory conditions. The reason for this is simple. Iraq is a core producer of oil for global markets. Control of this oil cannot be ceded to either the guerrillas or Iran under any meaningful interpretation of US policy. Further, a full US withdrawal would put Saudi Arabia at risk — the collapse of both of these oil producers in tandem would plunge the global economy into a depression.
While this may be accurate – and it certainly demonstrates the imperialist lunacy underlying the Iraq invasion – it implies the US can still control and shape events in Iraq when it’s increasingly clear it can’t.
The Iraq Study Group favors a gradual withdrawal while Dubya persists in his delusional “stay the course” madness. While watching this fight within the ruling class might be amusing, people are dying over there, and even the Baker plan implies the US needs to maintains control politically, which is just more imperialism and more doomed plans. None of them are asking Iraqis what they want and seem oblivious to the insurgency and to the very real possibility the US will be defeated and forced to leave, as happened in Vietnam.
Here’s the reality:
U.S. can do little to stop civil war in Iraq, experts say
Of course, none of this would have happened had the US not invaded based on lies.