Because we have a goofy electoral college system, battleground state polls become way more important at the end of a presidential campaign than national polls. And if you look at battleground states, the race is not close. Clinton will win.
The extremely cautious RCP Electoral Map has PA, MN, WI, ME, NH, OR, CT, VA as leans Clinton. PA, VA, WI, and MN are strong Clinton. I grew up in CT and can assure you, the New England states of ME, NH, and CT will be for Hillary. There’s no way any New England state goes for Trump, ain’t going happen.
Pollyvote has Clinton with 329 electoral votes. CBC has Hillary at 323. Both of these include Leaning in their totals. 538 basically agrees with these totals. So, if you compare all the polls and electoral projections, there is remarkable consensus. Clinton will win and it’s not going to be close.
The Comey brouhaha is sound and fury signifying nothing. Few if any will change their votes over it, especially not when the election is just nine days away. Ditto for whatever Wikisqueaks may release. Opinions are hardened and few if any will change.
But still, vote, GOTV, and work hard until the election is over. I entered data for about 400 phone calls to Democrats in Las Vegas into the Democratic voter tracking system yesterday and will do the same every remaining day up to and including Election Day.
BTW, people on all sides are going bonkers as the election nears. Embrace the chaos. We have no other choice. 🙂
While a sizeable third of Democrats also say it’s bad, we found yet another reminder that the election has become a relative choice between the two candidates: those same Democrats also feel the email matter is not as bad as things they dislike about Donald Trump, so they aren’t re-evaluating their vote.
But while Trump has surged in Florida, he is still behind in two states critical to any Electoral College comeback: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Losing both states, worth a combined 35 electoral votes, would foreclose most realistic paths to victory for Trump.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in North Carolina, also conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, gives Clinton a 6-point lead over Trump, 50 percent to 44 percent. Clinton’s margin holds when Johnson is included as an option, 47 percent to 41 percent.
RCP battleground polls, 10/31
AZ Clinton +0.6 !
CO Clinton +4.5
GA Trump +2.8
FL Tie Clinton doesn’t need FL to win
IO Trump +1.4
ME Clinton +6.7
MI Clinton +6.2
MN Clinton +6.0
NC Clinton +2.9
NH Clinton +5.2
NV Clinton +1.7
MO Trump +7.2
OH Trump +1.0
PA Clinton +5.8 The mother of all battleground states
VA Clinton +8.0
WI Clinton +6.5