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Dismal election forecast for Democrats

Sabato

Conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats

It is not that Republicans are popular—most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party.

The Democratic Party now can only be described as pathetic. They had it all in 2008 and have squandered it. They have no discernable platform, no fire in the belly, and don’t even punch back against attacks, much less take the offensive. It’s almost like they want Republicans to win big.

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  • “Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party.”

    Many of those observers also aren’t very perceptive. I took a stab at this paradox a couple weeks ago in a post at Poli-Tea. It is a result, I think, of the reactionary ideology and practice of lesser evilism, which is the primary ideological support for both the Republican and Democratic parties, indeed, for the two-party state as such.