As if tensions weren’t already high enough in the Persian Gulf. Now comes news that Israel is planning a preemptive attack on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities using nuclear weapons.
Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear â┚¬Å“bunker-bustersâ┚¬ÂÂ, according to several Israeli military sources.
The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.
Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open â┚¬Å“tunnelsâ┚¬Â into the targets. â┚¬Å“Mini-nukesâ┚¬Â would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.
Needless to say this would be an absolute disaster for the entire region and beyond. Iran would have to respond and America would then come to the aid of Israel. There is no way Israel would make such a move without full consultation with Washington beforehand.
By replacing General John Abizaid as head of Central Command for the Middle East region with a naval officer, Admiral William Fallon, Bush might be planning for the use of the naval assets he already has in place in the Persian Gulf. These warships are likely to be more useful for an attack on Iran than putting down an insurgency in Iraq. It would seem then that the preparations have been made. The Democrats have already said they don’t want more troops sent to Iraq and they could potentially block further funding for Bush’s war. However, are they likely to make such a bold move? When it comes to Iran, some Democrats seem just as belligerent as the Republicans. Bush may get the funding he needs to bolster troop levels in Iraq more easily if he can convince Congress that Israel is in danger.
The fact that this highly sensitive plan was deliberately leaked indicates it isn’t actually “real” in the sense of an imminent action; Israel would hardly be likely to leak it if it were. Instead, it has several purposes – further convince the American and British public about how “serious” the situation is, so they’ll be willing to act when those governments decide to, and to intimidate the Iranians and bluff them into making concessions on their nuclear power program because of fears of what might occur.
Of course, the fact that the Israelis are willing to talk semi-openly about such plans would be a perfectly rational reason for Iran to do something they up to now have vowed opposition to – developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent to attacks by Israel or the U.S.
Yo, Israel, go for it. When the Muslum world rises up and drives you into the sea, well, rightfully so. You are an illegal state, a terrorist state – the mother of all terrorist states – perpetrating a genocide on an indeginous people. You have no right to exist, so go ahead, nuke your neighbors. Go ahead, commit suicide.
What will happen if the US Nukes Iran? The US will become the new “Axis of Evil”.
Bush desperately wants to start a war with Iran as a last gasp effort to salvage something beyond ignominious defeat for his “Legacy”. All of the scenarios spelled out in the War Games the Joint Chiefs did in the last five years have said that starting a war with Iran will inevitably lead to a nuclear first strike against Iran’s Natanz and Esfahan facilities.
The War Games Scenario for the Iran War goes like this:
1. The US or Israel [with US cooperation] prepares to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Esfahan. A few Generals and Admirals resign but the attack happens anyway. The attack causes major surface damage but does not penetrate through the layers of reinforced concrete and steel to the level of the Centrifuges and Uranium processing facilities. The attack is a failure but it starts a US/Israeli war with Iran.
2. Iran announces it is withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran attacks any oil tankers passing through the Straights of Hormuz and the US Aircraft Carriers and their escorts in the gulf using swarming speedboats, torpedoes, mines and silkworm cruise missiles and sinks at least 1 carrier and several other ships causing 2000-3000 US casualties.
3. The US Air-force starts large scale bombing of Iran’s infrastructure.
4. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard invades southern Iraq with 300,000-400,000 ground troops and cuts off all supplies to US forces in southern and western Iraq.
5. The US bombs areas of southern Iraq where Iranian soldiers are blocking US supplies and the US bombing causes mass civilian casualties.
6. The Iraqi Government orders the US to leave Iraq immediately or be attacked by the Iraqi Army. The Iraqi Shiite and Sunni Mullahs issue a Fatwa directing all Insurgents and Militias to attack US soldiers and not each other.
7. US forces are besieged by 300,000 Iranians and 200,000 Iraqi Army, Insurgents and Militia soldiers. After 30-60 days of intense fighting and 10,000-20,000 US casualties, the US bases in Iraq run out of fuel, ammunition and food.
8. The US troops in southern Iraq, western Iraq and Bagdad are forced to “Retreat Under Fire” to the Kurdish north leaving behind all of their heavy equipment.
9. The Iranians seize the abandoned US weapons and bring in fuel and supplies and turn the weapons on the US.
10. The US claims the excuse of “Protecting US Troops” and uses tactical nuclear bombs to attack the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Militia forces in southern Iraq and nuclear bunker buster bombs to destroy Natanz and Esfahan in Iran. There are 300,000 immediate civilian casualties caused by the blast and radiation and 750,000 cases of radiation poisoning in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Northern India.
11. All Oil production in Iraq and Iran stops for 6-9 months [25% of world oil production]. All Middle-East Oil shipments through the Straights of Hormuz are stopped [20% of world oil production]. All middle-eastern countries together impose a total Oil Embargo on supplies to the US and Israel. Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina join in the Oil Embargo. Gasoline and Heating Fuel-oil prices rise to $10.00 per gallon, Natural Gas prices rise to $5.00 per CCF and gasoline rationing is imposed. Energy intensive industries shut down. Frequent major blackouts occur crippling the server farms that power the Internet. The US economy suffers a meltdown.
12. Iran abrogates the Non-Proliferation Treaty and reprocesses Plutonium from their research reactors to produce 1-2 nuclear bombs which are used to destroy Tel Aviv. Israel responds with their own nuclear bombs destroying Tehran.
13. A general war of all Islam vs. the US and Israel ensues. All US bases in the middle-east are attacked causing 50,000-75,000 US casualties before the US forces can escape. Israel is invaded from all sides by Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories. The US and Israel are branded by the world as the “Axis of Evil”.
Imagine a world where the US is reviled by every other nation for the unforgivable damage we have done to innocent civilians. Where the US is under a Permanent Oil Embargo by all OPEC member states. Where Canada, Mexico and South America join Europe and Asia to ban all trade with the US and evict all US Military bases from their soil. Where all US citizens with any connection to the Bush Administration are under indictment by The Hague and are put on a No-Fly List banning them from from travel outside the US. Where all US multi-national corporations are boycotted or banned by the rest of the world or are forced to split and change their names to avoid anti-US sentiment.
All this and more can happen if Bush decides to Nuke Iran.
Bush is the Decider. He makes the Decisions and the rest of us have to live with the consequences. Bush’s Decisions about the Middle-East have been uniformly bad. Some of them have been worse than bad; they have crossed the line into the zone of Criminal Negligence and Suicidal Stupidity.
The worst Decision Bush has made in his two terms as President has been to insist that the use of Nuclear Bunker Buster bombs remain in the Pentagon’s planning for dealing with Iran.
Iran may be telling the truth or Iran may be lying when they say that they are only trying to enrich Uranium for nuclear power. If Iran is telling the truth and their goal is just nuclear power, then using a Nuke against Iran will guarantee that Iran will go for The Bomb in self defense. If Iran is lying then using a Nuke against Iran will only delay Iran getting The Bomb by one or two years and will guarantee that they will attempt to use it against the US or Israel.
The US B61-11 Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb is only able to penetrate hard rock to a depth of 10-20 feet before it detonates. At 20-ft penetration and maximum yield, the B61-11 can only destroy a facility that is buried less than 600-ft below ground. Blast forces can be blocked by simple inexpensive materials like a 100-ft thick layer of gravel or bags of sand or granulated salt. The limitations of the B61-11 have been known for years and any Iranian weapons facility will have been built with those limits in mind.
If Iran is actually trying to build a Nuclear Bomb, they will probably have done what Iraq and Pakistan did by building a secret second facility buried deep under ground under the publicly visible facilities at Natanz and Esfahan.
The Natanz facility in Iran is known to have a double roof of thick reinforced concrete with 50-75-ft of gravel between the concrete layers. The roof is sufficient to protect against any non-nuclear bunker buster (even the US air forces MOAB bomb). Natanz could probably also survive a low yield Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb.
If the US actually used the B61-11 bomb in Iran against the Natanz or Esfahan facilities more than 500,000 civilian deaths could be expected in iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
The short term consequence of the US starting a war with a Nuclear First Strike will be Bush/Cheney’s Impeachment and Trial for Treason. The long term consequence will be the meltdown of the US economy and a world wide depression that will probably last a decade or more. The final consequence will be massive nuclear proliferation by every country capable of developing nuclear weapons resulting in an eventual all-out Nuclear War.