4GW in Lebanon

4GW is 4th generation warfare. It’s something the US and Israeli military, no doubt through arrogance and the belief that brute force must always prevail, do not comprehend. Hezbollah does comprehend it. That’s why they’re winning.

The secrets of Hezbollah’s success

Hezbollah’s performance in a set-piece battle with the Israeli military (arguably once, a top notch conventional military) is an excellent example of how non-state groups have radically improved their ability to conduct tactical and strategic operations. To wit, the continued success of its efforts has put the Israelis on the horns of a dilemma: either request a ceasefire that locks in military defeat – or – push for a full invasion of southern Lebanon (each are fraught with disastrous consequences).

Winning a 4GW conflict

Victory in 4GW warfare is won in the moral sphere. The aim of 4GW is to destroy the moral bonds that allows the organic whole to exist — cohesion.

Listening to reporters yesterday was instructive. Arab TV is showing footage far gorier than the sanitized versions shown here, US reporters say, with Arab reporters reporting live and sometimes breaking down in tears, with the videos showing the disemboweled babies, not just hinting at it. Yet in the next breath they say, but what can account for the bizarre, soaring popularity of Hezbollah in the Middle East? Then they cut to a neocon in D.C., someone who has barely traveled out of the country and lives in an academic, cloistered world, for an “analysis” which invariably tells us how Arab and Muslim factions have fought each other for centuries, that they hate freedom, and are thus muddled, confused children. Or something along those lines. We’ve all heard this kind of racist drivel endlessly.

What US reporters rarely say is the obvious. Hezbollah is enjoying huge popularity because they have stopped the Israeli assault against their country. For Hezbollah to win, they simply have to not lose. For the US/Israeli to not lose, they must destroy Hezbollah and most of Lebanon. The price for doing so, both in terms of worldwide condemnation and loss of soldiers, is one they can not pay. That’s what 4GW is.