John Robb on what will happen after the inevitable and coming attack on Iran by the US.
The first wave: local counter-attacks. Oil prices spike. Global condemnation of the attack.
The second wave: the instability spreads across the globe and America is incapacitated. Protests against American policy abound (including domestically in the US), many of these may get violent. American businesses suffer. The US is plunged into a domestic political crisis.
The third wave: state failures.A gulf monarchy falls. Successful terrorist attacks on oil production systems have deepened the global energy crisis. The global economy goes into a severe and prolonged contraction.
Alarmist? It can’t happen here? Maybe… maybe not…