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The Fourth Transformation. Robert Scoble and Shel Israel


The first transformation was mainframes, followed by text-based operating systems like DOS. These were supplanted by graphical interfaces like Windows and Macs, which include smartphones. The fourth transformation is underway now, AR / MR/ VR glasses will replace smartphones as a primary device. Think a Caterpillar mechanic using AR glasses to look at the manual when repairing equipment. This is already happening.Or think walking into a store an seeing sales displayed in your glasses for items you are interested in. This may seem odd now. It will become completely routine.

Some of the advances are mind boggling, like blind people being able to see using an AR receiver transmitting to a chip implanted behind the retina which sends the data to the brain, allowing the person to see. Lowe’s is using Google Tango phone infrared features to read dimensions of a room and map where sofas, cabinets could go and allow you to view them. The next step of course is AR googles allowing you to view it 3D doing a walkthrough.

There are huge numbers of possibilities and applications for the fourth transformation, most of which will be beneficial and useful (as long as we can turn off the ads from beacons in stores when we want to.) This technology can and will be misused, jacked, and manipulated by evildoers intent on fleecing, manipulating, and tracking us. The book discusses this. We need to insure this does not become the fourth tyrantsformation.

As always in books written by Israel and Scoble, the style is straight-forward, hugely informative, and written in a conversational style with lots of examples explaining their broader concepts.

I read this on a Kindle using my iPhone to look up links. Perhaps I will read their next book using AR glasses

Highly recommended. The fourth transformation is coming. They help us understand it now.

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Rules for Radicals. Ridicule is mans most potent weapon


The fifth rule: Ridicule is mans most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counterattack ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage — Saul Alinsky

Trump is a perfect target for this because he’s so thin-skinned. Attacks and criticism make him crazy and he reacts with sometimes nearly incoherent tweet storms. I can’t recall any previous president-elect who went on a rant against a local union leader. Such targets are generally considered beneath a president to attack and instead are delegated to others to do. But Trump can’t do that. Criticism makes him so unhinged it’s almost comical.

Imagine if such attacks were constant, coordinated, and done deliberately to provoke him. He might  become completely unbalanced as the whole world watched, greatly lessening his power and effectiveness, especially if he did something stupid in response.

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Rule for Radicals: Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules

coal mine
The fourth rule is: Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules. You can kill them with this, for they can no more obey their own rules than the Christian church can live up to Christianity — Saul Alinsky

Sanders is using this as a tactic. Trump said during the campaign he would not touch Social Security and Medicare. Sanders is constantly and loudly reminding Trump of this and of other promises he made.

We can also make a point of pointing out when Trump cannot fulfill promises he made, like with dismantling Obamacare and bringing back factory jobs to the Rust belt and coal jobs to West Virginia. Republicans in Congress are now balking on killing Obamacare and the vast bulk of those jobs aren’t coming back.

Those jobs aren’t coming back because capitalism mandates things be done as cheaply as possible. Coal is in an irreversible decline because it’s being replaced by natural gas and renewable energy. No company will build a factory in the US to make widgets at a cost of, say, $100 each when they can be made in China and shipped here for $50. Trump threatens tariffs and trade wars. However, they don’t work. Unless he wants iPhones made here with a list price of $400 more than the current price.

So, make Trump live up to the promises he made that we like and point out when his promises never materialize, either because he never meant them in the first place or they simply can’t be done.

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Rule for Radicals. Go outside of the experience of the enemy

Rules for Radicals
We need to do whatever we can to baffle, derail, create splits in, and block the Trump presidency. One way is by attacks they never see coming and don’t know how to defend against. Protests and demonstrations baffle and enrage them, as witness their outrage at the spontaneous protests after the election and the comical accusation that the protests were funded by Soros. These protests were outside their experience and they didn’t have a clue what to do about them.  Also,  Trump, inexplicably, goes bonkers when satirized on Saturday Night Live and is clearly extraordinarily thin-skinned. So, the more protests the better, ditto for satire and lampooning Trump.

Sometimes street theater can be hugely effective. In 1967, Abbie Hoffman and Jerry Rubin snuck into the New York Stock Exchange and threw money off the balcony at traders. Some traders tried to grab money. Others screamed insults at them. Hoffman and Rubin got ejected, went outside and burned money on the sidewalk. It made headlines across the country. Playful antics like this certainly won’t bring down the Trump presidency on their own, but they can be effective and get publicity.

If we operate outside their experience, they won’t know how to counter what we do or their counter-reaction will be clumsy and ineffective.

Rules for Radicals:

The third rule is: Wherever possible go outside of the experience of the enemy.

Here you want to cause confusion, fear, and retreat. General William T. Sherman, whose name still causes a frenzied reaction throughout the South, provided a classic example of going outside the enemy’s experience. Until Sherman, military tactics and strategies were based on standard patterns. All armies had fronts, rears, flanks, lines of communication, and lines of supply. Military campaigns were aimed at such standard objectives as rolling up the flanks of the enemy army or cutting the lines of supply or lines of communication, or moving around to attack from the rear. When Sherman cut loose on his famous March to the Sea, he had no front or rear lines of supplies or any other lines. He was on the loose and living on the land. The South, confronted with this new form of military invasion, reacted with confusion, panic, terror, and collapse. Sherman swept on to inevitable victory. It was the same tactic that, years later in the early days of World War II, the Nazi Panzer tank divisions emulated in their far-flung sweeps into enemy territory, as did our own General Patton with the American Third Armored Division.

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Rules for Radicals. Never go outside the experience of your people

Saul Alinsky

Never go outside the experience of your people. When an action or tactic is outside the experience of the people, the result is confusion, fear, and retreat. It also means a collapse of communication, as we have noted —  Saul Alinsky – Rules for Radicals

My experience probably isn’t your experience. We need many groups and organizations applying pressure against Trump. Some will be in the streets, others working with NGOs, lobbyists, pressure groups. Still others could specialize in mass letter-writing and phone-calling campaigns to legislators, because this apparently does have an effect. There are multiple ways to oppose Trump.

People should do what they are comfortable doing. Some have no problem being in the streets confronting racist counter-protesters. (I’ve done this.) Others will prefer working behind the scenes blocking legislation, things like that. And of course, donating to and getting involved with organizations like ACLO, EFF, SPLC, etc. can also be hugely effective.

All of this implies there will be groups with plans, goals, and leaders. Forget leaderless resistance. It’s a quaint fantasy that only possibly works in you are deep underground. Nationwide mass protest needs leaders. Someone has to be in charge. Join a group you like. Become a leader, if you want. Determine what your group wants to do and what is within your experience. Then do it.

Do what you are comfortable doing. Build on that as the group gets more confidence.

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