Sometimes the tiger may act unexpectedly, savagely, or even turn on those who thought they controlled it. Niall Ferguson, who apparently gets all misty-eyed at the thought of American Empire Unchallenged, says all these revolts and revolutions in MENA may end badly and violently. Well, of course they might. There are no predetermined outcomes with revolutions. He also gets grumpy because Obama didn’t see them coming and didn’t have a plan. Au contraire. No one saw them coming. These revolts have gobsmacked the planet. No one has a clue what comes next. They are the political equivalent of a black swan.