Alex Steffens at World Changing thinks so, expanding on a NY Times article. The rising price of oil, possibility of supply chain reduction, the coming tax of levy on carbon, and the collapse of the Doha trade talks are all helping the rein in the excesses of globalization. And that’s probably a good thing.

One point is probably worth making in conclusion: because communications technologies are (comparatively speaking) dematerialized, a reversal in material trade patterns almost certainly would not also mean a reversal in intellectual trade patterns — rising oil prices or climate change won’t shut down the web or stop Bollywood from making movies or prevent innovators from licensing their ideas in other countries. In fact, it might be that expertise, innovation and culture will flow more freely in a world where goods flow more slowly. We might actually grow more interconnected in a world where supply chains shrank.

1 Comment »

Water is the essence of life, sustaining every being on this planet. Without water, there would simply be no plants, no animals, and no people. But the global water supply isn’t just at risk, it’s already in crisis.

Opens in September. Website: FlowTheFilm.com

No Comments »

The Sunday Times UK has an excellent, lengthy interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Published last May, it has had huge impact, the idea that unpredicted events can change everything and that most aren’t prepared for them. Indeed, almost by definition, you can’t be prepared for. Google was a Black Swan, so was Black Monday in Oct 1987 when the stock market crashed.

Taleb was a trader then and had realized that the market goes up fairly slowly but when it goes down, it can happen fast and furiously. So, he’d been buying out of the money puts (don’t try this at home, kids) and when the crash happened, made enough to retire. Such a crash, by traditional financial models, wasn’t supposed to happen. But it did.

He does not think the current credit crisis is a Black Swan and predicted it would happen. Much of the blame for it is due to banker types who think they can manage risk effectively with theoretical models.

“But to me [the credit crisis] wasn’t a black swan; it was a white swan. I knew it would happen and I said so. It was a black swan to Ben Bernanke [the chairman of the Federal Reserve]. I wouldn’t use him to drive my car. These guys are dangerous. They’re not qualified in their own field.”

In his book, he describes when a hedge fund blew up. I think it was LTCM and they almost took the world financial system down with them. Their models conclusively showed that risk was never more than three standard deviations. Enter reality. What took them down was a six standard deviation event.

His Fat Tony parable illuminates his primary point.

Let me introduce you to Brooklyn-born Fat Tony and academically inclined Dr John, two of Taleb’s creations. You toss a coin 40 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the chance of it coming up heads the 41st time? Dr John gives the answer drummed into the heads of every statistic student: 50/50. Fat Tony shakes his head and says the chances are no more than 1%. “You are either full of crap,” he says, “or a pure sucker to buy that 50% business. The coin gotta be loaded.”

Dr John is the economist or banker who thinks he can manage risk through mathematics. Fat Tony relies only on what happens in the real world.

Taleb has a website at www.fooledbyrandomness.com

1 Comment »

While this is my first GPS, I’ve used hundreds of software packages since I bought my first computer in ‘74. Ease of use and an intuitive interface is always helpful, especially in a GPS that is used on the go. The Garmin 760 is so easy to use I barely needed the manual.

It’s powerful too. We needed to find a Whole Foods while in the car. I pulled over, typed in “Whole Foods”, it found six in the area, and we choose the closest one. The screen is big, so you can easily watch the map. It has audio prompts, and the pronunciation is understandable. It even pronounced “El Camino Real” correctly.

It stores the most recent 50 locations, and you can easily save them to Favorites, like I did with Whole Foods.

It can list stores, gas stations, points of interest, etc. wherever you are, and has the phone number too. You just touch to call because it has Bluetooth and easily syncs to cell phones. Thus, it also acts as a hands-free speakerphone (and the audio can also be sent to an unused FM channel.)

Amazon has it highly discounted for $370. The maps are $70 a year. Other than that, there are no extra charges, unless you want add-ons like real time traffic, etc.

Impressive, indeed. We recently moved to the S.F. Bay Area, and it’s been a huge help in getting around and finding places.

2 Comments »

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Delinquencies for prime mortgages doubled in April compared to one year earlier while Alt-A mortgage delinquencies quadrupled, up to a whopping 12%. These mortgages are for those with good credit, and are not subprime.

No Comments »