Archive for June 3rd, 2008


Has oil peaked, at least temporarily?

A cover story by The Economist about high oil prices would, assuming you believe in contrary indicators, indicate at least a short-term top in prices. That’s what The Big Picture thinks, saying “Painful though it is, this oil shock will eventually spur huge change. Beware the hunt for scapegoats”. I agree.

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Historic

My 90 year old father, a life-long Republican until 1992 and Obama supporter since day 1, called me excitedly tonight saying CNN just called the nomination for Obama.

He said, “this is historic” and he’s right. An African-American man is now the Democratic nominee for president and quite probably will become president.

Someone on Twitter said, so now we hold his feet to the fire like any other politician, right? Absolutely. But let’s appreciate this historic moment for the extraordinary moment that it is.

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Left wing adventurists slammed by the Left

Lenin’s Tomb, an SWP blog in all but name, just ran a piece saying that protesters should grab weapons from the police and use them against the police. Happily, most of the rest of the hard Left saw this childish and dangerous delusion for what it is, posturing by a loonie left faction who have no discernible moorings in reality (yet who of course see themselves as a vanguard party leading The People to a glorious victory over imperialism, yeah right.)

Saul Alinsky commented on this same type of thing in the 60’s saying, it is idiocy for the Panthers to say all power grows out of the barrel of a gun when the other side has all the guns. Any of the multitude of bizarre Left vanguard parties who actually try to take a gun from a cop to use against them will probably find themselves a corpse or in prison, with no sympathy from the populace they in their delusions think they lead.

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Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

This documentary opens 07/04/08. Website.

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A fine rant on commodity speculation

From options trader Philip Davis.

Who are the apologists at CNBC really protecting? Bloomberg says it’s the investment banks, who have churned free Federal loans along with an investor frenzy into $596 TRILLION of speculative derivative investments “including those based on debt, currencies, commodities, stocks and interest rates.” THIS IS A 44% INCREASE OVER LAST YEAR! Commodity derivatives alone expanded by 26.5 percent as the price of gold and oil reached records. Contracts based on gold rose the most in the second half, by 40 percent to $595 billion. COME ON BODMAN, TELL ME AGAIN HOW THERE’S NO SPECULATION DRIVING COMMODITIES!

It is important to understand that in commodities, futures prices drive the spot price — however counter-intuitive that may seem — and not the other way around. The chart clearly shows a smallish rise in actual demand but a huge spike in futures trading.

People aren’t just running out of gas money, they are also starving to death and let’s hope that our finally Democratic Congress finds this as unacceptable as the people who voted them in think it is.

Indeed. Will President Obama truly be able to deliver, assuming he genuinely wants to? Let’s hope so. A genuinely progressive president would be a huge step in the right direction over the psychoses of the past eight years.

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How expensive is S.F. real estate?

This 7500 sq ft lot with a dilapidated tear down house on it is priced at $4 million.

(Well, it does have a view to die for.)

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Barn. horse. gone

GM finally appears to have stumbled upon the clue train and just announced it will close four truck plants and dump their Hummer brand because of rising gas prices.

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Consumers scramble for cash. Predators lurk.

Some new ways the broke and desperate are trying to conjure up money, according to WSJ.

Selling your insurance policy at a greatly reduced price to a company that resells to someone who pays the premiums and waits for you to die. Charming.

Reverse mortgages. You get a loan or income stream against your house that doesn’t have to be paid until you die or move out. I’m guessing you end up with nothing even close to the actual value of the home.

Raiding retirement accounts. With or without debit card loans.

A REX agreement, you in effect sell an interest in your house (at the usual greatly reduced rate of course) for a flat amount, they get their share when you die or sell.

I wonder how long it will be before these bizarre and often predatory financial products are bundled by the thousands into bonds then sliced and diced into CDOs. Oh wait, that process already happened with mortgages, and didn’t end well, as I recall.

But that won’t stop them from doing it again. Meantime, desperate consumers are literally borrowing against their future to pay bills now.

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Bold new theory explains the Internet

Get your t-shirt now.

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