Goldman Sachs says a recession is near with Merrill Lynch saying it’s already here.

Triggered by the subprime debacle, the rot has spread through all residential real estate and is now impacting commercial real estate, credit card and auto loan debt, with businesses having to pay sharply higher rates for loans, if they can get a loan at all.

The foreclosure rate is climbing, with a mass of resets coming in the next few months.

Just a month or so ago, the investment banks were still saying if the economy hit a bump at all, it would be minor. That’s all changed.

And, according to the venerable Dow Theory, it’s officially a bear market. Yeah, my puts are exploding in value, but I’d rather it was calls that were going up. But I’m doing swing trading now (holding positions from a few days to a few months) and the obvious trend for the market now is down.

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