(I asked quarsan at BlairWatch , a truly activist blog that has broken major stories, if he could explain to us here in the States what Thursday’s election in Britain means. His repsonse is long and absolutely worth reading.)
From quarsan:
The Short Rise and Long Fall of Tony Blair
(I’ve tried to keep it as impartial as I can:)
Tony has never been much of a party man and he has never had any real affection towards Labour. it was his Christian beliefs that influenced his decision to join in 1975 and he positioned himself on the soft left of the party.
In 1994 the Labour leader died and at his funeral the young Blair broke his promise not to run against Gordon Brown and was duly elected party leader.
Then the Conservatives imploded, partly because of recriminations following their 1990 assassination of Margaret Thatcher and partly over the divisive issue of Europe. Prime Minister Major lost his grip on the party which fell apart in a series of financial and sexual scandals. This corruption was the ultimate cause of Blair winning the 1997 election by a landslide.
Blair entered Downing Street with few people understanding what his politics actually were. We soon found out. After a brief reforming phase he began to put his theories into action. Basically he believed that the UK was essentially Conservative and elections were won or lost on the centre ground and that it was the growing middle classes who decided the victors. To outsiders it looked like neo-thatcherism.
Blair looked as though he had a winning formula and many embraced it. Labour had been in a bad way since 1979 and were widely thought to have split for good had Blair lost. For many he represented the last chance for the party. A third of the party were believers in Blairism, a third were pragmatists and a third detested him.
His first term was largely successful and the floundering Conservatives easily lost the 2001 election and carried on their tradition of picking laughably inept leaders. The Conservatives were in trouble, Blair had lifted many of their policies, they remained at each others throats over Europe and were turning to their declining, elderly and largely senile party members right of sensible views.
The Turning Point
People were gradually getting disillusioned with Blair. He was seen as being more about style and presentation rather than substance. He was outstanding at major events, such as the death of Diana and September 11th. But he had weaknesses. Having always possessed a messianic streak and a belief in his destiny as a world leader he gradually stopped seeing the difference between what was good for him and what was good for the nation.
His decision to go to war in Iraq brought his downfall.
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