Archive for October 11th, 2007


We’re all subprime now

Van Nuys foreclosure activity

From Tanta at Calculated Risk, in a long post about how, yes, the poor and people of color generally got stuck with mortgages with higher interest and more onerous terms that did higher income Anglos. But, and this is a very big but, plenty of those high income Anglos also got such terms. So maybe the problem isn’t just subprime being ghettoized to scapegoat the poor and people of color, but that people of all income levels got shafted by high interest rates.

The possibility also seems to have escaped them that maybe subprime is, at the end of the day, just “high rate lending.” If that’s the only constant we can find in that category called “subprime”–if income, credit history, property location and price in that bucket is apparently rather random–then you begin to suspect that “subprime” is “loans to naive or desperate borrowers,” not this ballyhooed “risk based priced” stuff of recent legend.

The bottom line is that “high-risk” lending was everywhere in the boom years. Of course there is a desire to collapse it all into the easy category of “subprime.” And there has for a long time been a lot of political pressure to keep the association of “subprime” and “urban minorities” in place, because it has functioned as a good excuse for the subprime lenders (they “help” the poor and minorities, remember?).

If this ain’t “just a subprime problem,” then an entire debt-based economy in which even the middle and upper middle class cannot afford homes given RE inflation and wage stagnation is suddenly in question. The last thing certain vested interests want to hear is that, basically, “we are all subprime now.”

One of the comments to Tanta’s post sums it up nicely.

What we’re seeing is not the result of a “subprime problem” but instead a “credit underwriting standards problem” — that is, high risk loans became de rigeuer not primarily because of reaching into lower social strata but because of laxity in originator risk management across all social strata? and by extension, across all loan types relative to earlier standards?

The graphic is from foreclosureradar.com. The area is West Van Nuys in L.A. - middle class tract homes built in the 50’s. It’s where we lived until moving in Jan. of this year. To my knowledge there was little or no foreclosure activity going on when we moved. Nine months later, it’s everywhere. It appears there’s a lot of hurting going on there now.

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Jimmy Carter: U.S. tortures prisoners

The U.S. tortures prisoners in violation of international law, former President Jimmy Carter said Wednesday, adding that President Bush makes up his own definition of torture.

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Iran War Watch. 10/11/07

How insane are these foaming-at-the-mouth warmongers? Check out Norman Podhoretz, known as the patriarch of neoconservative nutballism. A confidant of Bush, Podhoretz is now running around in the White House inner circle promoting a massive bombing attack on Iranians. He admits that this would “unleash a wave of anti-Americanism all over the world that will make the anti-Americanism we’ve experienced so far look like a lovefest.” Yet, despite acknowledging such horrific consequences for our country, he maniacally declares “I hope and pray we will” bomb Iran.

Excuse me, but what kind of god do you pray to for a hellish attack that will make America globally despised?

And what kind of Congress says nothing to stop it from happening, especially considering they know they were lied to previously about a war that has had disastrous consequences?

Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerers of death’s construction
In the fields the bodies burning
As the war machine keeps turning

Politicians hide themselves away
They only started the war
Why should they go out to fight?
They leave that role to the poor

- War Pigs, Black Sabbath

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China has 106 billionaires

That’s up from 15 last year (according to Bloomberg TV)

Barron’s reports (behind their subscription firewall) that more than a few of new Chinese stocks available on US markets were reverse splits into shell corporations, something which should immediately arouse suspicion. Many of these stocks are currently zooming upwards for no apparent reason, defying gravity, amid reports of financial irregularities.

Beijing real estate floats like a bubble on a bubble

Asian bubble out of control thanks to US rate cut

What’s happening in China is a transformation event. Rarely before, if ever, have investors been able to make so much money so quickly with so little knowledge of what they are buying.

It’s too late to call Chinese stocks a bubble, when Asia’s No. 2 economy is experiencing a bubble in bubbles.

There’s no telling what will happen when the China bubble pops, especially considering that their at least nominally Communist government is often a partner or has a controlling interest in their supposedly private companies. Also, Chinese nationals are currently not allowed to invest outside the country, so much of the speculative mania probably comes from them - and they’ve no experience with what happens when a bubble pops. Ditto for their economy at large. Expect angry citizens when their stock market craters and companies lay off workers or go out of business.

What is China now anyway? There’s been considerable discussion of this in socialist circles. Are they still true to socialist principles or a sell-out? When you have a communist government owning major parts of large capitalist businesses then you do indeed have some kind of weird new hybrid.

However, these hybrids are pumped full of helium and sooner rather than later will come plummeting back to earth, causing severe damage when they do.

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Attention spammers

If you wish to send spam pretending to be the IRS, and tell me to clickthrough for the refund, don’t format the amount using European style notation, as Americans generally will wonder why the amount is “$123,45″ and not “$123.45″

As for other kinds of spam the free and wonderful Akismet has now blocked over 300,000 comment spams right here on Polizeros. Yes, 300,000.

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A Nobel Laureate’s plea

Justice for the Cuban Five. NY Times Op-Ed.

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