Why Bush is in trouble

From Kos, writing in The Guardian

So a poll showing Bush leading 45-42 is headlined “Bush leads by three”, when the reality is that Bush is actually losing.

In US elections, any elected official garnering less than 50% of the vote in polls is considered vulnerable. As Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal notes:

“In the campaign’s last hours, we tend to see ‘undecided’ voters ‘break’ for the challenger.”

Testing this theory, blogger Chris Bowers examined presidential poll results since 1976, and calculated that undecided voters broke for the challenger 86% of the time.

Kos has done a truly amazing job at blogging from a partisan liberal Democratic perspective, with his site now getting upwards of a million hits a day. He spearheaded the attack on Sinclair Broadcasting, and with that many readers, you know Sinclair felt serious pain because of it.

He once blogged that he is from El Salvador, was there during the worst of the madness, and that while US politics may get heated, it is peaceful compared to what he witnessed in El Salvador where there were death squads.

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