NYT/CBS Poll has the presidential race as a tie. Most other polls show the same. This indicates a Kerry victory. Why?
Bush’s ratings are dismal. Indeed this poll says “Mr. Bush’s job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure.”
Plus, these are likely voter polls and do not include the large numbers of new voters and voters who don’t normally vote but are this time. By all accounts they arre tilting towards Kerry.
Analysts watch the incumbent’s numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.
In other words, if polls show the race as a tie, given the above, Kerry will win.
Of course, regardless of the winner, the election will be contested, with Armageddon-like court battles and vicious, maybe unprecedented, partisan warfare. But you knew that already, right?