California recall election by October….

California recall election by October. Arnold expected to run

The recall election will occur by October. Candidates may have as little as one day to file. If Schwartzenegger runs as expected, then Democrats, despite their protestations, may be forced to run other candidates besides the weak and unpopular Gray Davis.

I’m a Green, and I would absolutely not underestimate the possibility of Schwartzenegger becoming Governor. He has huge name recognition, lots of money, is plenty smart, and absolutely plays to win.

The machinations here will be fascinating, as prominent Democrats decide whether or not to run. Leaving the Democratic field to just one candidate, Gray Davis, could let the Republicans win. However, if name Democrats run, they could split the vote and be accused of being disloyal. And they have very little time to decide what to do.

A wildcard: Peter Camejo, who ran for Governor in 2002 as a Green and polled 5%, is running aggressively. He is calling for an independent outside audit to determine what happen to the California surplus. Camejo has run socially responsible mutual funds that beat the general market, garnered high ratings when he managed the Conta Costa county bond fund, and is extremely knowledgeable about financial matters.

“Barring court intervention, Secretary of State Kevin Shelley could certify as soon as Thursday that sponsors of the petition for a recall election have gathered enough signatures to get the measure on the ballot.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante would have to set a date for the election to occur within 60 to 80 days of Shelley’s certification — so, if the recall is certified this week, the election would have to occur no later than mid-October. As a practical matter, that means that candidates could have as little as one day to decide whether to run; they must file the required paperwork at least 59 days before the recall election.

His top political strategist, George Gorton, said that Schwarzenegger had not made a final decision, but that all signs point toward a run by the actor and former champion bodybuilder.

“I’m pretty darn sure he’s running,” Gorton said.”