The perfect storm is about…

The perfect storm is about to hit California

1) The Gray Davis recall

“The movement to replace just re-elected Democrat Gray Davis as governor of California is beginning to look like a runaway train with nobody at the controls.

The state’s voters may go to the polls this fall to decide whether Davis shall be removed, would then probably vote him out and on the same ballot select his successor. Nobody can predict that successor, or even whether the winner would be a Republican or Democrat.”

2) The budget crisis

California has a 38 billion dollar budget deficit. Lawmakers are deadlocked on what to do, with the deadline just days away. Democrats want to raise taxes to protect social spending. Republicans say over my dead body.

The Republicans aren’t kidding.

“Both parties agree there probably is no turning back from Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte’s threat last week to end the political careers of any of his fellow party members who join Democrats in voting for a tax hike. A tax increase would require at least eight GOP votes to reach the needed two-thirds majority.”

Thus the deadline will doubt expire with no new budget being passed. As a stopgap measure, California just sold 11 billion dollars of bonds, enough to get through the summer, with no possibility of more sales until a budget passes.

Then, come September, all Hell will break loose. Taxes will go way up and/or services will be drastically cut back. Probably both. Then there will be many furious Californians, and they will blame every politician they can find, including Gray Davis. And this will happen right as the now-expected-to-win recall election shifts into serious campaign mode.

What’s coming

A weak economy, a state that is beyond broke, plus a probable recall election whose outcome no one can even attempt to fathom – this is what California will face in the fall.