Everytime The Drudge Report hysterically trumpets a poll showing that McGrumpy might win this thing, just head over to FiveThirtyEight where Nate Silver will calmly explain why the poll in question is an outlier or has a biased sample. He will do so using fact, logic, and science. Like this.

Trick or Treat

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

The problems are numerous. It’s a one-day poll, and as these can be  unreliable. Also, it’s Zogby poll and uses “nonsensical party ID weightings which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don’t like to do.”

Plus, six out of seven other polls taken at the same time had Obama up, thus making the Zogby poll an outlier. Which would not be surprising if you are doing naughty things with the numbers.

In short, Zogby polls are not reliable. I’m guessing Drudge knows that too.

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From No on Prop. 8

In a telephone call to California voters, President Clinton delivers the following message regarding the unfairness of Proposition 8:

“This is Bill Clinton calling to ask you to vote NO on Proposition 8 on Tuesday, November 4th. Proposition 8 would use state law to single out one group of Californians to be treated differently — discriminating against members of our family, our friends and our co-workers.

“If I know one thing about California, I know that is not what you’re about. That is not what America is about. Please vote NO on 8. It’s unfair and it’s wrong. Thank you.”

The calls from President Clinton went to millions of registered California voters overnight.

The latest Field Poll has the No on Prop 8 forces winning by a few points. Let’s make it so.

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The Attack Ad Generator is WAY too much fun and could burn up hours of time. Go there and create your own!

Update: The ad appears to only work in Firefox and not Internet Explorer when using the embed code. Click here to view it on their website.

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Races usually tighten at the end. Today’s Gallup Daily shows no sign of that. In fact, the opposite seems to be happening.

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Blairwatch on the endorsement, and on “Obama and how it will affect the EU”, quoting from a speech by David Rennie, The Economist’s Europe correspondent.

However, it’s time for a reality check, “Senator Obama is not Martin Luther King, Obama is not Bobby Kennedy. He is not an idealistic romantic dreamer. Barack Obama is an extremely effective, extremely charismatic machine politician. He came through the Chicago political machine, one of the dirtiest, most corrupt, most nepotistic political machines. He never fell out with the machine, he never challenged the corruption; he does what it takes to get by.”

Since I’ve never believed Obama to be anything but a centrist who possesses almost supernatural political skills, then presumably there will be less to disappoint me. As for being corrupt, there’s nothing to indicate that Obama himself is - because, if for no other reason, the Republicans would have surely found it by now. That he negotiated the brass knuckle world of Chicago politics and remained inspirational is a decided positive.

One key issue with Europe will be the contract for Air Force tankers. Will it go to EADS, an European firm, or back to the U.S? (Boeing’s previous bid ended up with some of their executives going to prison for corruption.)

Rennie wonders what Europe’s world role will be.

A very uncomfortable moment as Europe wants to have a loud voice in the world, to be taken seriously, but cannot decide what it wants to say. How long does Europe have before the new president decides that Europe is not serious? “About twelve months and then we’re going to be back with a president who doesn’t think Europe is serious.”

“On balance, If we’re not going to be as crap as we usually are, then Obama is definitely the president we should elect.”

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“We’re able for the first time to directly attribute warming in both the Arctic and the Antarctic to human influences on the climate,” said Nathan Gillett of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

It’ll be so nice to have the Flat Earth Society out of the White House, and replaced by an administration that will be working to stop global warming rather than pretending it doesn’t exist.

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Perhaps collectors will snap up the few Durango and Aspen hybrids that were actually made, because it’s clear why no one else was wanted them. First off, the SUV market has collapsed. Second, they only get 19-20 mpg. Third, the price differential is extremely steep compared to Durango and Aspen non-hybrids and way more expensive than comparable hybrids from other manufacturers.

What was Chrysler thinking? Both in deciding to make these hybrids and in killing them so fast? Sounds like they are are the verge of collapse.

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George Monbiot

How was it allowed to happen? How did politics in the US come to be dominated by people who make a virtue out of ignorance? Was it charity that has permitted mankind?s closest living relative to spend two terms as president? How did Sarah Palin, Dan Quayle and other such gibbering numbskulls get to where they are? How could Republican rallies in 2008 be drowned out by screaming ignoramuses insisting that Barack Obama is a Muslim and a terrorist?

Simple, it’s because the intellectual stance taken by much of the Right is that intellectual stances are intellectually suspect and should not ever be trusted intellectually. I do hope this clears things up for our puzzled friends in other countries.

Richard Hofstader said it all in 1963 in Anti-Intellectualism in American Life.

I’m guessing governments and people across the planet are now optimistic that those crazed Yanks will be ending their eight year Highway to Hell on November 4 by electing a highly intelligent, non-ideologue moderate as president.

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From the quite reliable FiveThirtyEight

Per a commenter, the measure is trailing 49-44. My guess was pretty good! But ballot initiatives are notoriously hard to poll, so this is probably best considered to be a toss-up.

Obama’s coattails may be what gets a win for No on Prop 8.

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