Comments on: Bi-polar financial markets http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/ Musings on politics: Antiwar, global warming, peak oil and otherwise Sat, 10 Jan 2009 00:24:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Bob Morris http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-149096 Bob Morris Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:15:23 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/#comment-149096 I think the stock market is finally cracking to the downside, we shall see. Full disclosure: I own puts on indexes and stocks. I think the stock market is finally cracking to the downside, we shall see.

Full disclosure: I own puts on indexes and stocks.

]]> By: Oneunder http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-149091 Oneunder Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:04:00 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/#comment-149091 Bi-polar is an understatement. The truth is I don't think anyone can fully grasp the extent of the debt troubles the world faces, the USA in particular. I have read unofficial numbers in excess of 600 TRILLON, the only way out is hyper-inflation. At the same time investments in production capacity keep marching along bringing the potential of too many goods chasing to few dollars aka as deflation. My best guess is that the markets for for a number of to come are going to wild and wooly with no sure thing in market. As far as real estate bargains wait for the boomers start to unload then you will see relative bargains Bi-polar is an understatement. The truth is I don’t think anyone can fully grasp the extent of the debt troubles the world faces, the USA in particular. I have read unofficial numbers in excess of 600 TRILLON, the only way out is hyper-inflation. At the same time investments in production capacity keep marching along bringing the potential of too many goods chasing to few dollars aka as deflation. My best guess is that the markets for for a number of to come are going to wild and wooly with no sure thing in market. As far as real estate bargains wait for the boomers start to unload then you will see relative bargains

]]> By: Bob Morris http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-149072 Bob Morris Thu, 21 Feb 2008 16:05:57 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/#comment-149072 Except if the bond market really starts collapsing then it'll bring down the stock market too. It's all interlinked now and bond [problems mean margin calls which means they sell something, probably stocks, to meet the margin call. Except if the bond market really starts collapsing then it’ll bring down the stock market too. It’s all interlinked now and bond [problems mean margin calls which means they sell something, probably stocks, to meet the margin call.

]]> By: DJ http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-149070 DJ Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:48:44 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2008/02/21/bi-polar-financial-markets/#comment-149070 Part of the problem, I think, lies in the fact that people have money to invest, and there are a limited number of traditional investment vehicles. Real estate is in the toilet, bonds are shaky, that leaves only one place to go: stocks. We might note that the market IS down from its highs of last year, and real estate is not expected to recover for at least another six months (and maybe a year or more). Thus, of the three, stocks really are the better choice using traditional logic. (Personally, I think it's time for those with the cash to start looking for real estate bargains to hold long-term. Wish I had the cash.) The alternative, that people just pull their money out and sit on it for a period of years (and make nothing) while this mess settles down, would IMO be a real "doomer feedlot" scenario. Part of the problem, I think, lies in the fact that people have money to invest, and there are a limited number of traditional investment vehicles. Real estate is in the toilet, bonds are shaky, that leaves only one place to go: stocks.

We might note that the market IS down from its highs of last year, and real estate is not expected to recover for at least another six months (and maybe a year or more). Thus, of the three, stocks really are the better choice using traditional logic. (Personally, I think it’s time for those with the cash to start looking for real estate bargains to hold long-term. Wish I had the cash.)

The alternative, that people just pull their money out and sit on it for a period of years (and make nothing) while this mess settles down, would IMO be a real “doomer feedlot” scenario.

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