There’s a lot of that going around– including much closer to home.

Excellent op-ed piece in the LA TImes on Sunday from a former Latin American reporter opining (accurately, in my opinion) that Chavez is more mouth than menace. Just another small man trying to make big. Not that the opposition forces will be able to do squat, given their own disorganization and corruption. Surely the Venezuelan people deserve better than they’ve gotten for the past 30 years.

Something like 2.8 million who previously voted for Chavez stayed home and didn’t vote this time. This indicates a huge drop in support and probably a demoralized base.

Your conclusion is invalid. Regardless of what Chavez said, a vote for the referendum was a vote for the referendum, not a vote for Chavez. These were two very different votes - one a Presidential election, the other a vote on a very complex series of constitutional changes. It is perfectly possible for a Venezuelan to very much support the direction that Venezuela is heading in, and to support Chavez as the leader of that process (and indeed, that poll I posted here the other day suggested as much), without agreeing with (or even understanding) the complex set of changes that were proposed. And it is quite understandable that such a person, while not willing to vote “no” (knowing that that would be seen as a vote against Chavez and a boost to the opposition), still wouldn’t be willing to vote “yes.” This is consistent with the fact that the “no” vote, which was predominantly an “anti-Chavez” (as well as an anti-referendum) vote, was almost precisely equal to the anti-Chavez vote in the last Presidential election.