Comments on: Black swans and the credit crisis http://polizeros.com/2007/08/15/black-swans-and-the-credit-crisis/ Musings on politics: anti-war, global warming, peak oil and otherwise Thu, 08 Jan 2009 18:07:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Los Angeles Lawyer http://polizeros.com/2007/08/15/black-swans-and-the-credit-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-140243 Los Angeles Lawyer Wed, 22 Aug 2007 18:45:33 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/08/15/black-swans-and-the-credit-crisis/#comment-140243 Believe what you want, but the reality is that the San Diego real estate market peaked in summer ’05 and ever since, the value of homes has been in a decline. It’s even at the point where many San Diego neighborhoods have decreased in worth by double digits! If you don’t believe me, look at the facts. Check out these examples of median home value drops on resale homes from the local San Diego Union-Tribune newspaper (3-18-2007). And these figures are only since February 2006: Coronado 50%, La Jolla 15.6%, Pacific Beach 15.8%, North Park 15.8%, Ocean Beach 19.1%,San Carlos 19.1%. (You can view the full chart at: http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/index.php?paged=2) The average San Diego home price is around $550,000. That would mean that a 15% decline would cost a homeowner $82,500! If a home was bought last year, even with a 20% down payment, it could now be worth MUCH LESS than the cost of its mortgage! My predictions for the future of the San Diego housing market are as follows: I believe that the near future holds a seasonal sales pick-up but that in a few months, the downward trend will re-establish itself and not only continue, but likely worsen as the popular adjustable rate mortgages from the last few years come up for their first adjustment. San Diego housing values could easily be down 25 to 30% from their summer 2005 values by the end of 2007. Only a fool would believe the old industry slogan that “it's always a good time to buy real estate”. For some great 'insider' articles on the San Diego real estate market, which I believe will apply to any of the hot real estate markets of the past five years... visit: http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou Believe what you want, but the reality is that the San Diego real estate market peaked in summer ’05 and ever since, the value of homes has been in a decline. It’s even at the point where many San Diego neighborhoods have decreased in worth by double digits!
If you don’t believe me, look at the facts. Check out these examples of median home value drops on resale homes from the local San Diego Union-Tribune newspaper (3-18-2007). And these figures are only since February 2006:
Coronado 50%, La Jolla 15.6%, Pacific Beach 15.8%, North Park 15.8%, Ocean Beach 19.1%,San Carlos 19.1%.
(You can view the full chart at: http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/index.php?paged=2)
The average San Diego home price is around $550,000. That would mean that a 15% decline would cost a homeowner $82,500! If a home was bought last year, even with a 20% down payment, it could now be worth MUCH LESS than the cost of its mortgage!
My predictions for the future of the San Diego housing market are as follows: I believe that the near future holds a seasonal sales pick-up but that in a few months, the downward trend will re-establish itself and not only continue, but likely worsen as the popular adjustable rate mortgages from the last few years come up for their first adjustment.
San Diego housing values could easily be down 25 to 30% from their summer 2005 values by the end of 2007. Only a fool would believe the old industry slogan that “it’s always a good time to buy real estate”.
For some great ‘insider’ articles on the San Diego real estate market, which I believe will apply to any of the hot real estate markets of the past five years… visit:

http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou

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