Comments on: The myth of Iraq civil war http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/ Musings on politics: anti-war, global warming, peak oil and otherwise Thu, 08 Jan 2009 20:27:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: DJ http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133749 DJ Sun, 29 Apr 2007 23:58:54 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133749 Beacause those who benefit from war are usually in charge (at least of the combatant forces, else they wouldn't be fighting), the ONLY way a settlement can be negotiated is by mobilizing the constituencies of those in charge. External political pressure can help, but without the voice of the people, the leaders will continue to fight. And it can't be a one-sided process. All parties have to be pressured at the same time. This isn't an easy path: witness our near success in Sri Lanka in 2001, after two decades of fighting, which promptly returned to conflict because the peace movement didn't follow through after the Cease Fire Agreement. (I do not exempt myself from blame for this, either.) Nevertheless, I continue to believe it is the only hope for most conflicts today. Beacause those who benefit from war are usually in charge (at least of the combatant forces, else they wouldn’t be fighting), the ONLY way a settlement can be negotiated is by mobilizing the constituencies of those in charge. External political pressure can help, but without the voice of the people, the leaders will continue to fight. And it can’t be a one-sided process. All parties have to be pressured at the same time.

This isn’t an easy path: witness our near success in Sri Lanka in 2001, after two decades of fighting, which promptly returned to conflict because the peace movement didn’t follow through after the Cease Fire Agreement. (I do not exempt myself from blame for this, either.) Nevertheless, I continue to believe it is the only hope for most conflicts today.

]]> By: Bob Morris http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133735 Bob Morris Sun, 29 Apr 2007 19:50:34 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133735 Hegemony in the Middle East has been a stated goal of US foreign policy for decades under both parties. That's why they're there. The chances of the US doing the noble thing and negotiating a withdrawal are, I think, slim and none. Plus, few if any of the other parties have the slightest reason to trust the US. Trying to play one faction of against another has had disastrous consequences there and is just more imperialism, as in, the US knows what's best for you and you don't. Hegemony in the Middle East has been a stated goal of US foreign policy for decades under both parties. That’s why they’re there. The chances of the US doing the noble thing and negotiating a withdrawal are, I think, slim and none.

Plus, few if any of the other parties have the slightest reason to trust the US.

Trying to play one faction of against another has had disastrous consequences there and is just more imperialism, as in, the US knows what’s best for you and you don’t.

]]> By: Joe Hartley http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133731 Joe Hartley Sun, 29 Apr 2007 19:22:09 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133731 I'm with DJ in that I think a settlement could be negotiated if we use the threat of withdrawal wisely, ie, to scare the Shi'a into realizing that the Ba'athists have most of Saddam's arms and will come out fighting openly if the US leaves. The Kurdish problem is more thorny and has the potential of dragging in Turkey and even Iran if it's not handled carefully, not something that it likely or possible by this administration. I don't see the secular Sunnis giving in to theocratic Shi'a rule, especially after centuries of bieng the 15% that runs the government. All this was clear, of course, before we went in. I’m with DJ in that I think a settlement could be negotiated if we use the threat of withdrawal wisely, ie, to scare the Shi’a into realizing that the Ba’athists have most of Saddam’s arms and will come out fighting openly if the US leaves. The Kurdish problem is more thorny and has the potential of dragging in Turkey and even Iran if it’s not handled carefully, not something that it likely or possible by this administration.

I don’t see the secular Sunnis giving in to theocratic Shi’a rule, especially after centuries of bieng the 15% that runs the government. All this was clear, of course, before we went in.

]]> By: Bob Morris http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133703 Bob Morris Sun, 29 Apr 2007 13:45:18 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133703 I'm reading and will post a review soon of "Buda's Bomb. A Short History of the Car Bomb." Car bombs are often successfully used by hardliners to destroy the possibility of peace talks in a dispute. I’m reading and will post a review soon of “Buda’s Bomb. A Short History of the Car Bomb.” Car bombs are often successfully used by hardliners to destroy the possibility of peace talks in a dispute.

]]> By: DJ http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133654 DJ Sun, 29 Apr 2007 03:18:09 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133654 Just like in Vietnam, we are prohibited from talking to "the enemy." So we really don't know whether resolution is possible. But we do know all sides (except Al Queda) want the same thing: the U.S. out, and a move beyond the current chaos toward a fair sharing of power. Why this can't be negotiated-- with or without our troops still there (and I tend to think a solution is more likely BEFORE we pull out-- is beyond me. Except that none of the powers that be on the U.S. side seem to really want the war to end. My Rule #1 of conflict analysis: It's never about what the combatants say it's about. My Rule #2: Where a conflict exists, it's because it serves someone-- usually someone on both sides. Just like in Vietnam, we are prohibited from talking to “the enemy.” So we really don’t know whether resolution is possible. But we do know all sides (except Al Queda) want the same thing: the U.S. out, and a move beyond the current chaos toward a fair sharing of power. Why this can’t be negotiated– with or without our troops still there (and I tend to think a solution is more likely BEFORE we pull out– is beyond me. Except that none of the powers that be on the U.S. side seem to really want the war to end.

My Rule #1 of conflict analysis: It’s never about what the combatants say it’s about.
My Rule #2: Where a conflict exists, it’s because it serves someone– usually someone on both sides.

]]> By: Bob Morris http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133648 Bob Morris Sun, 29 Apr 2007 01:43:02 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133648 There is the chance of a resolution if the US leaves and lets Iraqis try to settle it, yes. It will never get better as long as the US is there. And the resistance is winning. Just like in Vietnam. There is the chance of a resolution if the US leaves and lets Iraqis try to settle it, yes.

It will never get better as long as the US is there.

And the resistance is winning.

Just like in Vietnam.

]]> By: Joe Hartley http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133639 Joe Hartley Sat, 28 Apr 2007 23:14:35 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133639 So there will be peace and harmony in Iraq as soon as the Americans leave? So there will be peace and harmony in Iraq as soon as the Americans leave?

]]> By: Thomas Ware http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/comment-page-1/#comment-133631 Thomas Ware Sat, 28 Apr 2007 21:31:41 +0000 http://polizeros.com/2007/04/28/the-myth-of-iraq-civil-war/#comment-133631 See Custer, General <i>George</i> Armstrong; @ Little Big Horn. See Custer, General George Armstrong; @ Little Big Horn.

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