Archive for September 22nd, 2005


Rita to stall after landfall?

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 20:55 - Category: Unfiled ;

NHC. 11 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2005

Rita
is about to pass over another eddy of high ocean heat content.
Combining this with the possible contraction of the outer eyewall
during the next several hours…Some restrengthening is forecast in the
short term.



Gradual weakening is possible later
on friday before landfall due to lesser ocean heat content closer to
the coast…And Rita is expected to make landfall as a major
hurricane…At least category three after landfall:



Rita is forecast to then essentially stall in about three days in the area of northeastern texas where steering currents are forecast to become very weak. This scenario poses a great risk of very heavy rainfall well inland and for many days after landfall.

Emphasis added. Note that the current 3 day cone and 5 day cone both end in the same area of northeast Texas. That means Rita sits in the same place for three days dumping rain.

No Comments »

Rita

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 07:21 - Category: Unfiled ;

HurricaneNow and Hurricane Track will be meeting up in Lake Charles to video and report on the Rita. HurricaneNow reports -

Well,
we have taken a disaster that could have begun with the arrival of a
hurricane and have found a way to start it two days early. The headline
on this storm is probably the way people (because of Katrina) have
responded to evacuation orders. You’d think that would be a good thing.
But so many people are fleeing the Houston area the roads are swamped!



It is incredibly hot. Some people are
pushing their cars to conserve gas and not using air conditioning. Many
are running out of gas and the stations are closed Texas DOT and
Houston officials are trying to get gas to them but it’s an incredible
mess. Can you imagine people trapped on an expressway in the midst of a
hurricane? The Houston mayor just said that would be a “death
trap.” Yes.

Bubba at Belly of the Beast,
is “A born-again Liberal, commander of a rear-guard insurgency, deep in
the Heart of Darkness (AKA suburban West Houston)” is staying there and
will be blogging about it. (above two items posted 5 PM PDT)

HurricaneTrack is confirming what I blogged below earlier. (posted 4 PM PDT)

The
official NHC track takes Rita inland near the Louisiana/Texas border.
This will place a great deal of SW Louisiana within the dreaded
right-front quadrant of this hurricane. Storm surge, very strong wind,
flooding rain and even the possibility of tornadoes will plague
portions of the upper Texas coast and into Louisiana.

The latest landfall projection, as noted, now shows NOLA on the east
side of the hurricance warning zone. Hurricanes spin counter-clockwise.
This means the Mississippi Sound, which flanks NOLA on the east could
take the full brunt of the storm from the dangerous upper right
quadrant, with heavy winds aiming eastward towards
the city on top of a massive storm surge. The upper right quadrant is
the most ferocious because the storm surge and wind are traveling in
the same direction. (posted 9:45 AM PDT)


HurricaneTrack.com

Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com chases hurricanes. He’s in Freeport,
TX now and plans to have three live video cams recording the storm. Not
sure how the video cam will make it to the Net, maybe he has satellite?
He is one of the few people left in that town, a video report just now
on Weather.com said the town was deserted.

11 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2005

Rita
appears to have reached its peak intensity during the past 12 hours.
Expected to make landfall as a dangerous hurricane of at least a
category three intensity.

10 AM. Landfall projection has shifted further east. NOLA is now in the hurricane warning zone.

NHC. 7 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2005

Maximum sustained
winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher gusts. This makes Rita a
potentially catastrophic category five hurricane

A slow weakening trend is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the
coast late Friday or early Saturday as a major hurricane…at least
category three.

Landfall is now predicted about 25 miles north of Houston/Galveston.

From the comments on TheOilDrum

One can never prove
it, but I have to believe that human-induced climate change is helping
to strengthen these ferocious storms. Now Rita, by hitting petroleum
infrastructure, is actually going to bite the hand that is feeding it.

John Ruskin would say that treating an inanimate object as though it
has thoughts and feelings is “pathetic fallacy.” I agree that’s unwise,
but it’s certainly tempting.

No Comments »

Hurricane aid used ‘to test out rightwing social policies’

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 06:52 - Category: Unfiled ;

President Bush’s multi-billion dollar reconstruction plans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina are being used as “a vast laboratory” for conservative social polices, administration critics claim.

The White House strategy involves the suspension of a series of
regulations guaranteeing the going local wage and affirmative action
for minorities, while offering tax incentives for businesses in the
affected region.

Education aid for displaced children will include $500m (£276m) in
vouchers for private schools, while a senior Republican has also
proposed a new law permitting a wide-ranging waiver of environmental
regulations.

Plus it will be a transfer of wealth in the hundreds of billions from
public money to the already super wealthy. Cynically, they will use
these disasters as justification to slash spending on health care,
schools, and infrastructure, while continuing to give tax cuts to the
wealthy.

No Comments »

To say we must stay in Iraq to save it from chaos is a lie

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 06:49 - Category: Unfiled ;

From The Guardian

This is a fiasco without parallel in recent British history. Iraqis must run their country: we’ve made enough mess of it already



Don’t be fooled a second time. They
told you Britain must invade Iraq because of its weapons of mass
destruction. They were wrong. Now they say British troops must stay in
Iraq because otherwise it will collapse into chaos.



This second lie is infecting
everyone. It is spouted by Labour and Tory opponents of the war and
even by the Liberal Democrat spokesman, Sir Menzies Campbell. Its axiom
is that western soldiers are so competent that, wherever they go, only
good can result. It is their duty not to leave Iraq until order is
established, infrastructure rebuilt and democracy entrenched.



Note the word “until”. It hides a
bloodstained half century of western self-delusion and arrogance. The
white man’s burden is still alive and well in the skies over Baghdad
(the streets are now too dangerous). Soldiers and civilians may die by
the hundred. Money may be squandered by the million. But Tony Blair
tells us that only western values enforced by the barrel of a gun can
save the hapless Mussulman from his own worst enemy, himself.



Iraqis of my acquaintance are numb at
the violence unleashed by the west’s failure to impose order on their
country. They are baffled at the ineptitude, the counter-productive
cruelty of the arrests, bombings and suppressions. They are past caring
whether it was better or worse under Saddam.



British soldiers are in a war over whose course, conduct and outcome their leaders have no control.



Signalling withdrawal would, it is
said, give a green light to the gangs and private militias, to revenge
attacks, ethnic cleansing and even partition. That threat is no longer
meaningful since these are all happening anyway.



The alleged reason for occupying Iraq
was to build security and democracy. We have dismantled the first and
failed to construct the second.



America left Vietnam and Lebanon to
their fate. They survived. We left Aden and other colonies. Some, such
as Malaya and Cyprus, saw bloodshed and partition. We said rightly that
this was their business. So too is Iraq for the Iraqis. We have made
enough mess there already.

Indeed.

Continued anger on the streets of Basra as marchers denounce ‘British aggression’

Basra refuses to deal with Britain after raid



The Iraqi city of Basra will not
cooperate with Britain until it receives an apology and compensation
after a British raid to free two soldiers, Basra’s governor and other
senior officials said on Thursday.

No Comments »

Global warming news

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 06:44 - Category: Unfiled ;

Hurricanes. Global warming is to blame

The chart tells it all. The percentage of hurricanes at Cat 4 and 5 has been steadily increasing since 1974.

Heatwave study raises new global warming fear

Global warming
could reduce harvests and plant growth, with a serious effect on farm
productivity, scientists will warn on Thursday.

The finding, based upon an examination of the effects of the 2003
heatwave in Europe, is of particular concern because many scientists
previously assumed that global warming would increase plant growth,
with beneficial effects for harvests and the environment.

Report predicts global warming’s deadly impact

A new report
forecasts that within 100 years 15,000 Australians could die each year
from heat-related illness if greenhouse gas emissions are not
dramatically reduced.

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) and the Australian
Conservation Foundation (ACF) have today launched the joint report in
Canberra.

Every government on the planet except for the US takes global warming
seriously. The willful ignorance of the US is dangerous and pathetic.

No Comments »

Podcasting menace strikes

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 06:41 - Category: Unfiled ;

Goodness dear, it says in the newspaper today that the youth of America
are creating and listening to podcasts about, now hold on and brace
yourself, sex. Who would have thought THAT would ever happen.

No Comments »

New Vatican rule said to bar gays as new priests

Bob Morris @ Sep 22nd 2005 06:39 - Category: Unfiled ;

Homosexuals, even those who are celibate, will be barred from becoming Roman Catholic priests, a church official said Wednesday, under stricter rules soon to be released.

No Comments »