AP: Iraq insurgency larger than thought

There are upwards of 20,000 well-armed, dedicated guerillas in Iraq. Homegrown guerillas. Not foreign, and not jihadists either. Just Iraqis who want the US out.

<A US> official and others told The Associated Press the guerrillas have enough popular support among nationalist Iraqis angered by the presence of U.S. troops that they cannot be militarily defeated.

Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society, not a Taliban-like Islamic state, the military official said. Almost all the guerrillas are Iraqis, even those launching some of the devastating car bombings normally blamed on foreigners.

Sunni resistance to US presence hardens

Which, of course, leads us to:

“So put down your books / and pick up a gun /we’re gonna have a whole lotta fun”

U.S. must get out of Iraq or draft will soon follow

But fear not, the Selective Service says not to worry, right on their homepage, uh huh, and they wouldn’t fib to us, would they?

Notwithstanding recent stories in the news media and on the Internet, Selective Service is not getting ready to conduct a draft for the U.S. Armed Forces

Factually, the above is true. The orders to re-institute the draft haven’t been given yet. However draft boards are in full mobilization mode, restaffing offices, etc. I’m guessing there’s a reason for this.

In this election year, both President Bush and Kerry are declaring that they would not reinstate the draft, but there are two bills in Congress that would start forced conscription in June 2005.

It’s interesting to note that the machinery for a draft, the Selective Service System, remains in place, used primarily to register 18-year-olds in case of an emergency call-up. Congress recently added $28 million to the Selective Service implementation budget, presumably to re-establish draft boards throughout the country.

And a satirist finds his previous jest, an article mocking the Bushies by saying those over 50 should be drafted, has now mostly come true, as the military is now drafting retired soldiers.

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Connect the dots

Venezuela and Cuba, major targets indeed of the neocons, have something else in common. Oil. Venezuela has huge deposits of oil, and sells to Cuba. And Cuba may be on the verge of a major oil finds itself.

Spanish seek oil off Cuba, as Americans watch silently

Recent announcements from Repsol YPF, the big Spanish oil and gas company, indicate an ambitious expansion program, with projects planned for countries like Libya and Equatorial Guinea that are not for the risk-averse. But none has attracted as much attention as its gamble on Cuba.

A significant find by Repsol would, of course, be a boon for Cuba, which imports most of its fuel, mainly from Venezuela, and often struggles to find the hard currency to pay the bills.

Indeed, as the Havana Journal speculates:

Cuba Oil - Would Chavez’s demise affect Cuban Economy?

Since an agreement was fashioned between Cuba’s President Fidel Castro and Chavez in 2000 to permit the sale to Cuba of up to 53,000 barrels per day of crude oil and fuel derivatives, Cuba and Venezuela have cultivated a relationship of steady trade. But instead of compensating the Venezuelan government for the oil it has imported with cash, the Cuban government has exported a less commonly traded commodity: human capital in the form of 12,000 doctors, sports instructors, literacy experts and others.

All of which helps explain why the Bushies engineered that failed coup against Chavez. Knocking off him might hurt Cuba too. Yet Cuba has survived ten US presidents trying to overthrow their government, their populace is well-armed, and most reports indicate their citizenry would strongly resist any US attempt at invasion, Castro or no Castro.

Cuba travel licenses harder to get; some challenging blockade

250 US citizens, including pastors, will be travelling to Cuba this week, in a direct challenge to the onerous new rules.

The BBC suggests the reason for Dubya gittin’ tough on Cuba is to appeal to Cuban voters in Florida, and thus help win the election. However -

Will the new Cuba trade embargo backfire? 

But there is also now a younger group who don’t take such a hard-line stance. They certainly don’t like Castro, but they also value contact with their families on the island.

They want the regime to fall but they don’t yearn for it with every fibre of their bodies like their grandparents who have active memories of life on the island.

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